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Opinions David Taylor, MBA, CFA
Tembec Inc.TMB.TOPAST TOP PICKJun 14, 2006
$1.35
Stock price when the opinion was issued
east coast forestry
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DON'T BUY
He likes the forest sector. This is more of an Ontario-based lumber producer with a dissolving pulp business along with some other assets. They have been burdened by a fairly high level of financial leverage, which would be something of a concern. Interesting to look at given Fairfax’s (FFH-T) recent stake.
east coast forestry
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Downward trend is reversing. Some encouraging signs including a pickup in volume as well as breaking into new territory. Potentially $1.80 if it continues this way. A concern would be lack of volume until recently so could be difficult to trade. Probably get it at $1.40. If it breaks down below $1.30, you have to exit as it will then stay in the $1-$1.20 range.
east coast forestry
DON'T BUY
It is a contrarian play. He would have thought there would be a turnaround by now in pulp and paper. The conversion of media and the move over to digital side seems to be a trend that has a long way to go. He looks for a company that has a temporary problem and can get back to where it was, but he is dubious about this one.
east coast forestry
(Top Pick Dec 20/05. Down 5%.) Actually went down to $1 at one point. Feels the company will file for bankruptcy. Is still short.