Colin Stewart
Tembec Inc.
TMB-T
DON'T BUY
Sep 03, 2015
He likes the forest sector. This is more of an Ontario-based lumber producer with a dissolving pulp business along with some other assets. They have been burdened by a fairly high level of financial leverage, which would be something of a concern. Interesting to look at given Fairfax’s (FFH-T) recent stake.
Not always on the forest product sector. Can't decide which is worse, the timber or the pulp and paper. They are both suffering very severe market conditions.
This is an area that would not be recession proof. With slowing construction, there will probably not be any upward move in the stock. If it broke through the $.40 level, it could mean a bankruptcy will occur.
It is a contrarian play. He would have thought there would be a turnaround by now in pulp and paper. The conversion of media and the move over to digital side seems to be a trend that has a long way to go. He looks for a company that has a temporary problem and can get back to where it was, but he is dubious about this one.
Downward trend is reversing. Some encouraging signs including a pickup in volume as well as breaking into new territory. Potentially $1.80 if it continues this way. A concern would be lack of volume until recently so could be difficult to trade. Probably get it at $1.40. If it breaks down below $1.30, you have to exit as it will then stay in the $1-$1.20 range.
Have 4 divisions, 3 of which are profitable. Stock is down and there seems to be some disagreement on the street as to what the price target is. Would prefer others such as Canfor (CFX-T).
He likes the forest sector. This is more of an Ontario-based lumber producer with a dissolving pulp business along with some other assets. They have been burdened by a fairly high level of financial leverage, which would be something of a concern. Interesting to look at given Fairfax’s (FFH-T) recent stake.