iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Buy,…

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

80.87

+0.09 (0.11%)

as of Sep 11, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

147 watching

Investor Insights

Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 5 opinions in the last 12 months.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has garnered mixed reviews from experts, reflecting the complexities of investing in long-term government bonds amidst rising interest rates. The bond market has been in a challenging bear cycle for the past five years, leading some analysts to suggest a more conservative approach by focusing on shorter durations of 7-10 years instead of the more volatile 20-year horizon. While TLT could be an attractive opportunity at lower prices, there is significant uncertainty, especially if inflation continues to rise, potentially exacerbating the pain for long bond investors. Additionally, the ETF offers a nearly 5% dividend, appealing to high-risk investors with a long-term focus, but there are concerns regarding double-taxation issues for Canadian investors. Overall, timing remains a significant concern surrounding TLT's long-term performance and market positioning.

Consensus

Cautious

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

TLH

SELL

US Bond ETF. It has been good to him as a firm. The world has gone to these recessionary hiding places and then gone back to thinking we are in recovery and TLT-Q has traded perfectly with that. He thinks it is incredibly over valued right now. Run for the hills from this one.

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TOP PICK

Look what the 30-year bond did in 2008. In the next recession the 30-year will do very well. Also, the Canadian dollar will weaken in the next recession, so you get a double-whammy with rates going down.

WATCH

Gone kind of ballistic. It's overbought, so it could pull back. If we have any lift of the fear, then TLT may not be such a good place.

COMMENT

Tracks treasury yields. It popped up with falling interest rates. Seeing more money going to the long-end of the yield curve. The second the interest rate starts going up, this can go down 15-20%. Would be cautious about parking money there. A 5 year bond fund or GIC might be better to park money there.

HOLD

In 2008, it returned over 60% to Canadian investors. When there's a recession, and growth retracts, people want their capital returned. So, long-duration assets, like 20-year bonds, go up a lot. Don't sell any of this. Most people are underbalanced in bonds, because they get complacent in equities.

BUY

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) He doesn't know the Treasury Yield 10 Years (TNX). If you want to play long bonds with interest rates falling (in the coming year) in an ETF, then look at TLT. (BMO has a version, ZTL). In a downturn, he likes the exposure to the US dollar.

COMMENT

To play potential interest rate volatility. He trades this often. To buy a call on a put, you have to buy a premium. He thinks interest rates will stay flat in the coming 12 months.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.

COMMENT

What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.

COMMENT

He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.

TOP PICK

Tracks US bonds, and it's volatile. This does well when equities do poorly, just like last fall, or in 2008 when it returned nearly 64%. This offsets portfolio loss.

COMMENT

Sideways over the last couple of years. Not going anywhere but a good trade. Good to buy at around $115ish

TOP PICK

Long-dated U.S. treasuries in this ETF. It'll rise in price as yields drop and you'll benefit from the CAD weakening against the USD, a double whammy for Canadian investors.

COMMENT

What ETF will hold capital over the next 12 months to buy for a RRSP account with USD? A USD GIC or a money market funder if you don't want to lose any money. At best, the market will offer single-digit returns. Look at the Spiders (ETFs), the grandddaddy of them all, or TLT. Do a 50/50 split.

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)