iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Buy,…

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

84.47

-0.02 (0.02%)

as of Jul 10, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

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Investor Insights

Jul 10, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 3 opinions in the last 12 months.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT-Q) is viewed as a suitable investment for high-risk investors with a long-term horizon, particularly in a risk-off market where long-duration bonds can perform well. Although economic weakness is anticipated, the timing is uncertain, and TLT offers an attractive dividend yield of nearly 5%. However, there are potential concerns regarding its tax treatment, especially for Canadian investors who may face double taxation. Analysts suggest that TLT may not be the most favorable choice for tax efficiency and growth within a bond portfolio. A top expert has a price target of around $90 for TLT, considering it an acceptable option for making profits despite being slightly down recently, signaling a cautious but not overly bearish outlook on the broader market.

Consensus

Cautious

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

TBF

HOLD

In 2008, it returned over 60% to Canadian investors. When there's a recession, and growth retracts, people want their capital returned. So, long-duration assets, like 20-year bonds, go up a lot. Don't sell any of this. Most people are underbalanced in bonds, because they get complacent in equities.

BUY

Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) He doesn't know the Treasury Yield 10 Years (TNX). If you want to play long bonds with interest rates falling (in the coming year) in an ETF, then look at TLT. (BMO has a version, ZTL). In a downturn, he likes the exposure to the US dollar.

COMMENT

To play potential interest rate volatility. He trades this often. To buy a call on a put, you have to buy a premium. He thinks interest rates will stay flat in the coming 12 months.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.

COMMENT

What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.

COMMENT

He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.

TOP PICK

Tracks US bonds, and it's volatile. This does well when equities do poorly, just like last fall, or in 2008 when it returned nearly 64%. This offsets portfolio loss.

COMMENT

Sideways over the last couple of years. Not going anywhere but a good trade. Good to buy at around $115ish

TOP PICK

Long-dated U.S. treasuries in this ETF. It'll rise in price as yields drop and you'll benefit from the CAD weakening against the USD, a double whammy for Canadian investors.

COMMENT

What ETF will hold capital over the next 12 months to buy for a RRSP account with USD? A USD GIC or a money market funder if you don't want to lose any money. At best, the market will offer single-digit returns. Look at the Spiders (ETFs), the grandddaddy of them all, or TLT. Do a 50/50 split.

TOP PICK

A strictly defensive buy to park money. Write an option out to June, buying at $118.50 and a $3.75 call and netting $114.75. Excluding dividend, you get a 3.27% return if TLT stays where it is. Downside protection at $114.75. He doubts interest rates will go up much in the coming 12 months.

DON'T BUY

It's a great summer play and is now weakening. For the past year it's been consolidating. It could find support, but seasonablity works against it--bonds do well until October, then get out. Why? As on October, risk-on trade takes hold. With rising US rates and risk-on trade, he's no confident that TLT will get a big pop. He's not excited about this.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 10/17 Up 0.4%) He might have been a little late on acquiring this, he thinks. In 2008, when markets dropped over 40%, this went up 50%. This is the best hedge for the market out there. He does not own it now, instead he owns the 10 year bond equivalent. He expects he will get back into this in the next 12 months.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick on June 15, 2017, Up 6%) He'd assumed interest rates would rise. They didn't. Rates rise and the value of TLT goes down. He sold a $126 call and he wanted it to close below that. It closed at $128 instead. He made 6% on the trade because he got more premium when he sold the option than when he would've had to buy it back on the last day of trading (last June).

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)