iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Classic reverse head and shoulders pattern. You can see the upside potential. It is in gear for an upside move.

Long term treasury bonds in the US. Broke a support level last week. We now have confirmation that the bond market is in a downward trend. Watch the FED announcement next Wednesday. TBT-N is the inverse of this one and has been doing better lately.

Has been trending down and has broken a little bit of support. There is a tendency for treasury bonds to move up over the summer. From the seasonal perspective, it should be a good place to be. He would only be interested in this if it broke out of its consolidation pattern, which looks a little weak.

This is the Long Bond Index and he would absolutely not buy this. If rates go up 1%, you could get as much as a 19% swing in price on the long end.

Treasuries tend to move well over the summer. This is the time of year to look at this. It is a trade for a few months.

This is the one that holds US government backed securities. He is not convinced that bond yields are going up any time soon, but doesn’t think they will go down either, so you are left with whatever yield this one is throwing off. Prefers ones that are tied to real estate and mortgages in the US or Internationally.

This tracks the longer-term (20 Yr +) bonds. Made a little bit of a floor here and he wants this to hold. Chart shows a reasonable downtrend that if it breaks out it’ll take off. Central bankers are still worried about deflation.

Turning over because the market is becoming more bullish. You stay out of this one until the market goes back to a “risk off” mode.

Represents long dated US debt. Chart shows a diagonal triangle going back to 2010. The end of the chart shows the trend is moving down indicating that the Selling is growing more aggressive. When you see this type of pattern, you always Sell into it. Technically, they have gone below the 50 day moving average and the 200 day is starting to flatten out. When this drifts lower, it means the fear trend is abating.

Can we use it to tell other things about the market? Yes. It has touched support recently and perfectly hit the 50-day and he was looking to re-acquire. You can put a really tight stop on this one. Pick it up at $110 if it breaks $120.

If interest rates go up, this ETF will get hurt as it is a direct proxy on the interest-rate market. He doesn’t think rates are going up for the next year to year and a half. Even if rates stay steady or go lower, he doesn’t think you are getting paid to take on that risk. If you own, consider taking at least half off the table right now.

He was looking at this chart just today. There is an older resistance in the latter of 2011, which it is attempting to bounce off of. Today did not create a buy signal, but if it stays above that level for a few days or a week, it would be bullish.

This is showing signs of topping out. Chart shows a rising wedge pattern. These patterns are bearish.

Chart shows a nice long upward trend. You could put a stop in at around $123.95.

(A Top Pick Aug 18/10. Up 4.5%.) 20+ yr treasury bonds. A bit riskier play because of the currency. His target was $106 but this made have to be revised if it breaks above its old high of about $108.