Air Canada (AC-T)

Not compelling right now for transparently understanding where it could go to. With the tariffs, this business is something that could actually be on the table; the dynamics of the Canadian market might change dramatically. Makes most of its money off international flights.

It is a trading opportunity and not a long term hold. There is still upside and there has been insider buying. It has announced an issuer bid. 18% of shares have been bought and cancelled in a year so revenue per share is going up. It is trading at a discount to its American peers and to its historical valuation.

It is buying back shares and did some cost cutting which could increase cash flow, but it still carries a lot of debt. It is a cyclical business and is battling U.S. giants. She wants to see a turn-around. If you own it continue to hold.

Started to put in a bit of a bottom a couple of months ago, as did many other airlines. This name's had a big move higher. There are 2 ways to consolidate: in price (sharp pullback) or in time (move sideways). Thinks we'll see consolidation at least for a bit, perhaps with a slight downward bias. (In tech analysis it's called a "flag".) Once done, it should resume the uptrend and move higher.

Once we get into August, put on the brakes or at least assess the risk.

Notoriously terrible businesses. Tight margins, large capex. Travel slows down in tough economic times. Non-sustainable business model for long-term growth. Trying so hard to raise fees on everything. Avoid all airlines.

It is trading near the levels seen at the early stages of the pandemic. Trade war fears have dragged down the airlines but this is overdone. Air Canada is at an 80% booking level which is normal. Its flights to the U.S. are down but international business is strong. It makes more money on international flights than domestic. The price is still OK.                             Buy 14  Hold 2  Sell 1

Airlines are a a very tough business to invest in. Highly volatile, highly levered. Not for him. He likes recurring revenue, visibility on revenue, and easy to play. You're flipping a coin.

A high-risk opportunity. Traffic to US is down. In the US travel is down, but revenues are up because people are paying for executive class. AC can do the same thing. Tariff noise will soon abate.