Stockchase Opinions

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI Teck Resources Ltd. (B) TECK.B-T TOP PICK Nov 12, 2018

Best risk-to-reward in the metal companies. Had $1.5 billion in cash. Trading at 3x enterprise value vs. peers at 5.7x. Its growing copper business will accelerate in the next year as it lowers costs. It's had a good move over the past two years. It's held very well in this space. Seasonality is in its favour, too. It's in a bullish pattern and it will be great if it breaks above $38. (Analysts’ price target is $40.04)
$27.290

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Mining
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BUY

He's so bullish on copper, recently added this to the portfolio.

WATCH

When breadth is weakening, he stops putting new positions on. But he's always building a farm team of things he'd like to own. Long-term view of this name and copper miners is very favourable. Technical chart's not good. Recently when we had a couple of really bad days, the copper stocks really broke. This is what tells him we may be headed for a recession.

Likes it. Dynamite assets. Cashflow will be good. But he needs to see things get better before putting money to work.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They dropped their coal business to become a pure metals play. The company has changed. They're pulled down along with industrials, given tariffs. Now is a buying opportunity. He might add to his holding.

BUY

Likes it. Got hit in April. Market priced in weaker economic growth going forward, tariff confusion, and higher probability of recession. Appetite shift toward precious metals. Pause on copper; for example, EV production will eventually continue, but is on hold. Electrical buildout globally will eventually ramp up again.

A lot of bad news was priced in, analysts are now getting on board. Good play longer term.

WATCH

Doesn't currently own; has been in and out, depending on how he feels about copper. Approximately the 11th largest producer of copper globally, a lot of which is pinned on the QB2 mine (a year behind, struggling to get up to full speed). But it will double copper production by 2027. Once that mine is steadier, probably looking at more share buybacks which is good for organic ROIC for shareholders.

Trades at a discount. Thinks he'll be back in very soon. He likes where copper is, even with the uncertainty around China. Q3 is probably when we'll start to see some really good momentum in the stock.

WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

TOP PICK

Great business, really cleaned up balance sheet by selling coal division. Now pure-play copper. Holds $4.8B in cash, returning a ton to shareholders. Stock's been hit last couple of weeks by mine expansion ($2.4B) near Kamloops, which will extend life of the mine to 2046. Pretty low valuation. Yield is 1.11%.

He's looking at the $42 put out to September. You get paid $1, which gives you 2.5% and a bit of downside protection. 

(Analysts’ price target is $43.02)
DON'T BUY

In a bit of trouble. Copper has come down from $9 highs to ~$4-5. Main mine in Chile is having production issues, costs coming in higher. Revenue announced last week was OK, but can't get over the hurdle of costs. 

FM is an alternative.

WEAK BUY
Merging with Anglo American.

It's a no-premium deal. Disappointed a number of investors. Looks like a sewn-up deal with respect to insiders and politicians. He likes copper, and it's harder and harder to find. Likes prospects and synergies for the combined mine in Chile.

He doesn't own mining companies, as they tend not to be good businesses. This one looks interesting if you want some copper.