Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

171.48

+1.11 (0.65%)

as of Sep 18, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

2220 watching

DON'T BUY

Just announced 24% growth. More employees in US than in Canada. Low ROE in the US at 6%. Canadian costs are up. Home ownership in Canada is at record highs and doesn’t see a lot more in home ownership. Doesn’t expect lending and mortgages to grow as much. Would like to see a lower price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 6/10. Up 1.45%.) Floating rate note maturing February 15/11.

COMMENT

There is a big question on dividends of the banks and at this point they are able to increase dividends, but because of the uncertainty of Basil 3, none of them seem willing. This one and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) are best positioned to increase them. Probably in the 1st quarter of 2011.

TOP PICK

Thinks it will be the first of the big 5 to raise its dividend as it has the lowest payout ratio. Expects all the banks to earn sluggish type earnings, 6%-7% increases, but looking at 8%-10%. Likes their US strategy.

BUY

Likes Cdn banks. In a period of rising interest rates, which he doesn’t expect to happen soon, they might find a little squeeze in terms of their book. Expecting dividend increases over the next couple of years.

TOP PICK

Strong leader in domestic franchise. Better earnings growth than most of the other banks. Comfortable with their US exposure.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 19/09. Up 14.2%.) Did a great job expanding into the US retail market.

COMMENT

Watch the entire sector. They have had a pretty good run. Don’t chase any of these financials. Be very selective. US expansion is going fairly well. TD has a plan in the states and so far so good. He doesn’t think a big bet in the US right now is that prudent and they are not doing that.

COMMENT

TD Capital Trust II Bonds callable 2012, due 2052 with a 6.792% coupon. Fairly confident these will be called Dec 31/12. When this was initiated, it was always intended to be a 10-year deal.

BUY

Has owned it forever along with BMO and RY. One of the worries he has, not for this year, is the direction of interest rates. There is a risk they will go up sometime next year. He thinks banks are selling at a discount to the market.

COMMENT

Starting to get a bit overbought and is starting to turn. Banks are decent long-term plays and you are getting a good dividend so good for a long-term hold. Dividend increase is forecast. If you want to trade, you can sell and buy back at $70-$72.50, the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 19/09. Up 13%.) Gone substantially more into retail banking in the US. Well managed bank with a great model. (See Top Picks.)

TOP PICK

Just reported very solid numbers. Likes the US where they are quite profitable. Could see $80. About 3% yield and is almost certain they will raise the dividend in 2011.

TOP PICK

Has done a strategic job of getting into the US market and operating their acquisitions. He is buying below $70. There is no rush.

COMMENT

Capital Trust II bonds callable 12/31/2012 due 2025 with a 6.792 coupon rate. Likelihood of them being called on 12/31/2012? Very high probability as banks have always called them even during a crisis. Banks are over capitalized right now.

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Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)