Tricon Capital Group (TCN.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Tricon Capital Group (TCN.TO)

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15.34

-0.12 (0.78%)

as of May 2, 2024, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

222 watching

TOP PICK

He still likes it. The valuation last time was ridiculous and now it is just cheap. Its peers on the US side are trading at NAV and TCN-T is at a 12% discount to NAV and he sees 12-15% growth in NAV this year. (Analysts’ price target is $13.80)

COMMENT

He tried trading this, but missed it. This is rangebound between $9.75-11.70. Right now it's at the top. Doesn't know if it will break higher. It will break on really exciting news, and volume will give you a clue.

DON'T BUY

He follows it closely. They made a lot of money from distress housing in the States after 2008. They pay a reasonable dividend. But TCN has gone nowhere, because US housing hasn't gone anywhere either. People are still burnt from the Recession.

TOP PICK

This is single family home rentals in the US. They have 17,000 of these. This is a well oiled machine delivering asset value. Their earnings are messy partly due to appreciation of properties in the US. A great way to participate in real estate. Yield = 2.51% (Analysts’ price target is $13.69)

HOLD

A US real estate management company. They have concentrated on residential US assets. It is not very well known. He likes the potential and thinks it is quite viable.

HOLD

His analyst met with them yesterday and it made him feel very bullish. Operationally they have been very strong. They added to their holding a few weeks ago. He thinks it could get back to $12 soon. The multiples are improving the value in his eyes and thinks the market will reward them. Rental rates have been increasing in the US -- especially in the sunbelt.

STRONG BUY

This is a great entry point. A play on the US single-family real estate market. They earn profits on their own property and management fees on the properties they manage. It trades at under 10 times earnings and pays a US dollar dividend.

TOP PICK

They offer technology services into real estate management. Trades at a big discount to NAV, which he feels will also grow strongly going forward. A slowdown in real estate building is a good sign that more people are considering renting. Yield 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $13.86)

HOLD

He sold this about 2 years ago. As the US housing market recovered this had done well. Now that US housing is slowing and US interest rates may be near 5-6%, he thinks this could further impact demand. He likes the yield and thinks it would continue to be a hold. (Analysts’ price target is $13.86)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 27/17, Up 6%) It is an excellent company, getting into US single family rental. The long term outlook is good but definitely interest rates impacted calculating the net asset value.

COMMENT

They’ve diversified. Underlying dynamics for this asset class are more positive than the homebuilders. But if rates go up, their profitability gets tougher. A low valuation way to play the US housing market, but he feels this is close to turning over.

BUY

A frustrating stock in some respects, but run by astute managers. They operate U.S. single-family homes and have used technology in association with their real estate projects. They're a long-term real estate manager that manages single-family homes. There's no catalyst that'll propel it tomorrow, but it's solid long-term.

BUY

He has been following this one closely since the IPO at $6. They have evolved the company into a landed home building community, building master community centres, particularly in the sunbelt of the US. They are operating about 17,000 family homes. Recent earnings were positive. The market has not yet really appreciated the true value of this stock and it trades at a 15% discount to its NAV. It has struggled getting through $12, so will be watching to see if it can get to $14 soon.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 29/2017, Down 3%) Exited a few months back. Healthy business, but asset purchase 9 months ago, US single family housing portfolio. One risk is that it's valued on a cap rate basis, so rising interest rates will hurt the perceived value of the assets. Well-run business. If it pulled back, they'd consider re-entering it.

HOLD

This stock is starting to recover and has reported a couple of improving quarterly earnings. He owns it, but is a little worried when it did not rally on the recent reports. They have an investor day coming up and hopes they will alleviate investor fears.

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Tricon Capital Group (TCN.TO)