Thompson Creek Metals (TCM.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Thompson Creek Metals (TCM.TO)

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28 watching

DON'T BUY

If you get a great bull market in metals, this is what you would want to own. The problem with having a minor metal like molybdenum is that there is not a deep market for it.

TOP PICK

Looking out a few years, he sees it trading at about a 32% discount to its NAV. Just acquired a copper/gold project in BC. One of the largest producers of molybdenum and one of the few that can produce finished product.

COMMENT

Benj’s partner thinks this is in a major growth mode. He doesn't know this one well enough. On his radar screen as a possible play.

DON'T BUY

Molybdenum is pretty unstable because of the way the commodity is traded on a global basis. When you are in a rollover market like the current one, you have no idea how much this is going to fall. If it gets washed out and there is cash value, then he would start looking at it.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Aug 5/10, Down 20.10%) Got it because it got very cheap and it turned out to go even cheaper. Sold it a few months ago.

DON'T BUY

Looks attractive on a valuation basis but not the kind of stock he buys. Made a major acquisition and spent cash they had been generating in the molybdenum market to buy a copper/gold development. He is very cautious on demand out of China for base metals. Has a small short position on this one.

BUY

Mainly molybdenum but did acquire a BC copper company. Stock has been correcting for the first half of the year but looks like it's at a good level now.

DON'T BUY

On the down trend. Wait until the down trend stops. Could go down to $9.50 very easily. If it goes back to $11, then revisit.

HOLD

Molybdenum. He owns and is suffering with it. Made some acquisitions. One of the best run companies in the business.

COMMENT

Mainly a molybdenum play but did acquire a BC copper company. Metals tend to do well at this particular time seasonally. Moly is highly correlated to steel prices, which is in its seasonal period now. Technically the chart shows a little pull back but is almost at its support level. April tends to be a very good time for commodity and commodity stocks so there might be a breakout.

BUY

Biggest molybdenum producer in North America, which is a big additive to steel. Reasonable low costs and so can make money. Should do well in the next little while.

COMMENT

Was one of the high fliers but feels valuation catching up to reality. Longer term not a bad investment.

WAIT

In the right space. Had a nice little pullback after running into resistance. Indicators are coming off an oversold level. He would want it to come back a little lower. He would like to see it at $12 or $12.50 and would buy

TOP PICK

Molybdenum. Not that excited on the moly business but thinks it will grow 2% to 3% in demand. He likes their acquisition of a B.C. copper mine that has a 22-year mine life and will be coming on stream in 2013. Market has ignored so you essentially get the mine for free.

BUY

Molybdenum. Likes this company. With the economic recovery, the ability to grow production is there and he biased to higher molybdenum prices.

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Thompson Creek Metals (TCM.TO)