Stockchase Opinions

Rebecca Teltscher Telus Corp T-T WEAK BUY May 15, 2025

Payout ratio is almost 100%. Dividend is not at risk; in fact, company said that it would be raised this year. Capex will be coming down, way ahead of peers on the capex spend on fibre to the home. As capex comes off, cashflows will go up, payout ratio will come down. 

Trades at premium, but it is the premium telco right now due to better financial condition. Stock will be range bound for now, but could be some growth longer term. Will pickup as macro environment improves.

$21.960

Stock price when the opinion was issued

telephone utilities
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BUY

Challenged sector for several years, mainly since interest rates started rising. Bond proxies that are pretty compelling when there's financial repression as we had from 2008-2022. You have to pick your spots. Likes Telus, but not the rest.

Telus dividend is more secure, yielding ~7.5%. Continues its cadence of dividend growth by 3% twice a year. Price war is abating. Selling non-core real estate and monetizing old copper.

WEAK BUY

All telcos are challenged: balance sheet, capital intensive, higher interest rates, competition, less immigration, need to pursue asset sales.

Great dividend name. Best of the bunch. Is this the very best stock to buy right now? No; there are others with more visibility and less hair on them. But this is a good one for the Canadian dividend tax credit. You never know what you don't know, and things can change for the better quickly.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 15/24, Up 0.1%)

It remains his favourite telco. Very well-managed. Have increased their dividend 27 times. Selling some of their infrastructure will be good to reduce debt. Still likes it.

BUY

Buy at this level or definitely hold on. He owns Quebecor and this. Like this. Well-managed. They were early investing in their infrastructure, and that capex cycle is coming down. This generate lots of free cash flow to increase their dividend each year (unlike BCE or Rogers). Telus has undervalued assets including in the health space, tech and real estate; can monetize these. Pays a great yield.

DON'T BUY
Safe income for retirement?

He invests in Telus bonds instead of the shares. Credit is very good, still investment-grade. Marketable assets. No issue with default in any of the big 3 telcos.

For the equity side: not a lot of growth, price competition, CRTC always making new rules. Big dividend is enticing, but not for him.

DON'T BUY

Everyone who wants a cellphone already has one. The market is not increasing. Not expensive. Trying to sell towers in the States, which makes sense. Core business is not growing the way it used to.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 24/24, Up 1%)

Still believes in it as a long-term investment. Tailwinds include decommissioning their copper infrastructure, selling some of their real estate and they are past the fiber-inflexible point in their investment. Cash flow growth looks good for years to come and should support the dividend. 

DON'T BUY

Below 200-day MA; also moving below 200-week MA, which is trending lower. Need interest rates to come down for this sector to do well. Yield is 7.64%, and that dividend could ease going forward. Tough space.

HOLD

Dividends are not in doubt, but there has to be some way to pay down debt while growing the business. Right now, all you're getting is the dividend but very little growth.