TSE:STB

Student Transport of America Ltd. (STB.TO)

BUY

Sees the 2013 payout ratio at 97% and the 2014 at 84% so the dividend is sustainable. Believes their new focus on improving margins and reducing costs and to expand rather than going into new markets with equity raises is the right strategy. Raised his price target to $6.71. For income oriented investors, this is an okay name to be owning right now.

BUY

Top notch management. Not a fast growing business. School bus business. Flat market, and they depend on fuel costs. Dividends are consistant, but don't expect to get rich on it.

WEAK BUY

Dividend appears well supported right now. Sees an 89% 2013 payout ratio. Thinks it has some capital appreciation here. He sees margins expanding by 60 basis points to 18.6% for 2013 as well as and additional 300-400 basis points in the next 3 years. If that comes to fruition, he feels the stock has upside. You don’t want to own too much of this.

BUY

Had some drama earlier this year. Payout ratio swelled to about 108%. They did this after an $84 million equity issuance which made sense when they had more shares that they had to distribute cash flow to. Thinks the equity raise was a good use of their capital which brought there debt to EBITDA down to 3.1 from 4.6. This gives them the fire power to grow by acquisition. Payout ratio of 8.6% is pretty safe. He is modeling 19% growth for 2013. Try to buy at around $6.40.

BUY

Price target (Originally shown as Distribution in error. My apologies.) Was cut today but he still has a pretty constructive view and a price target of about $6.75. Had a precipitous fall this summer because their payout ratios blew out from a pretty conservative level to about 108% because they issued about 84 million shares. He thinks it was good use of their capital structure because it eliminates some debt and gives them the ammunition to pursue their long-term strategy of acquisitions in a fragmented space. Feels the distribution is safe and his payout ratio target is about 90% for 2013-2014. There is still growth with this name.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Has never understood the excitement with that company.

BUY

Took a big drop about 3 weeks ago because of a report that the company was not going to be able to maintain its distribution resulting in a severe cut to the distributions. The author makes some valid points but a number of firms refuted the comments. 7%-8% yield.

BUY

0-4 year olds is the fastest growing demographic apart from the seniors. We are having a baby boom so it speaks well to the student transportation business. Out sourcing of student transportation is a necessity.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Pretty sustainable yield. Payout ratio is about 85%. Have done a great job of getting a lot of contracts. They are an industry consolidator. Real strong margins at around 20%. Now listed on the NASDAQ which helps their liquidity. Debt to EBITDA is about 4.5 times but for their business model it isn't wrong.
TOP PICK
Payout ratio is less than 100%. You begin reducing below $6.45 and if it dropped below $6 and if it dropped below $6, he would get out completely. 8% dividend yield.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has held in very, very well here. Great cash flows. Payout ratio of about 93%. Total debt to EBITDA isn’t bad given all the acquisitions they are making. Good company.
WATCH
Fundamentals of this company are deteriorating. Municipalities fund school buses. Has been a tough business recently. Can't see any growth here. Debt is around 2X cash flow. Over a 1- 2 year period it is reasonably safe and feels the 8.3% payout is sustainable.
BUY
Very sustainable yield. About an 85% payout ratio for 2012. This company is an industry consolidator. Have been winning a lot of contracts with a lot of fuel mitigation clauses. Margins of around 20%.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
School buses are not too economically sensitive and this pays a pretty good dividend. Safe yield. Valuation is a little stretched. Try to get at $6.45.
COMMENT
Transportation is a great industry to be but the numbers didn't excite him. Doesn't know what the payout ratio is so he can say how secure the dividends are. When companies are so exciting and there is so much praise about them, that is a good time to think about getting out.
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