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Spartan Energy Corp (SPE.TO)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Great Saskatchewan asset base. Lots of running room with 600-700 drillable locations. Likes the company and has great confidence in management’s ability to exploit the Frobisher/Alida play. They are at all the right addresses for an oil company. He would probably buy more on weakness.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 10/14. Down 21.5%.) This ultimately comes down to the management team, which has a proven conservative track record of executing. Great balance sheet. At $40 oil they would still be able to grow their production if they wanted. Their discipline is to spend within cash flow. Debt levels are nice and low. Doesn’t pay a dividend which he views as a real positive.

COMMENT

A well-run oil company. Fortunately most of their operations are in Saskatchewan, so that helps them with the recent government change in Alberta. An efficient operation and a proven management team. Optimistically they will be able to do acquisitions to improve their positions. Very good company.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 14/14. Down 15.25%.) When he recommended this, it was producing about 3000 barrels a day. It is now producing about 10,000 barrels a day. Has one of the best balance sheets in the country. One of the best and most respected management teams. Oil prices are down 50% and this company is down 15%, which is a testament to how well the company has been managed and how well the resource play holds up compared to others. Still a Buy at these levels.

COMMENT

Really likes this. The only reason to Sell would be as a bet on the commodity. Good management team. Still feels this is generally cheap. Doesn’t pay a dividend, but if you are looking for growth it is definitely one for your basket.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick March 10/14, Up 14%) This is a business model that is based on sustainability. One of the best niche oil players he can find. Even with oil at $50 wells generate positive rates of return for them.

TOP PICK

Very astute acquirers of light oil assets. Have a great balance sheet with about 1.2X debt to cash flow. They don’t pay a dividend. Completely unhedged, so you get all that upside if oil rebounds towards the end of the year. This is a company that plays thematically into Buy the Buyers, so he likes to invest in companies that are going to opportunistically be able to acquire assets from distressed companies and come out of the cycle as a stronger company.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 7/14. Down 13.99%.) He considers this as best of breed in the energy sector. Disciplined management team. Good capital allocators. You can control a lot of things, but you can’t control the commodity price. In his view management is good at delivering. They have a clean balance sheet. They can basically spend their cash flow this year and grow production per share around 20%-25%.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 14/14. Down 28.42%.) The price of oil has got chopped in half, but he is flat on his investment from his original purchase. If oil was at $80, this would be trading at $5-$6. He thinks this is where it will eventually trade at some point. Very strong balance sheet and a good management team.

COMMENT

A growth oriented oil producer. A name that he has been in and out of. Has an impeccable track record with some value creation since it was started. Management has done a good job of creating high margins, a strong balance sheet and an opportunistic company. Thinks they are in the driver seat of looking at opportunities, so he likes the name because of that.

BUY

Have had a few iterations with this management team. He thinks they will now be more of an acquirer. He expects some acquisitions. Their debt levels are quite low right now. You can back them as a growth oil company over the next couple of years.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 13/14. Down 9.01%.) In Canada there are 2 premier growth companies, Raging River (RRX-T) and this one, which is trading at a slightly cheaper multiple and probably has a bit more growth ahead of it. At $50, they can maintain flat production spending 1X Cash Flow. They are some of the best operators with some of the very best plays in Canada. He is very comfortable backing this team.

COMMENT

Spartan (SPE-T) or Secure Energy Services (SES-T)? Of the 2, he would prefer this one. Energy services will lag the producers, giving you more time to investigate Secure Energy. This company has great management, a solid balance sheet and is a low cost producer. If you are looking at a 3 to 5 year time horizon, you could start building a half position now.

STRONG BUY

Loves the story and will continue to hold and probably end up buying some more. Debt is not a concern here whatsoever. They have enough balance sheet capacity to look at accretive acquisitions. This is a market darling, because they deliver on what they say they are going to do.

HOLD

The 3-year chart shows a low that is under $4. Currently it is clearly above that low. One of the few that is positive on a relative basis. You are fine in here, but he wouldn’t add to your holdings. If you are a trader, you could probably go long. If you already own, he would reduce on the strength and hold onto the rest. This is not over yet.

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