
TSE:SJR.B
(A Top Pick Jul 13/20, Up 59%) The takeover bid by Rogers helped them. Liked the low valuation, dividend and the sector. Did sell around these prices. Prefers to lock in profits in case something goes wrong with the deal.
It's a long-term investment. Rogers wants to take it over, and the shares integrated quickly. They haven't re-rated to the Rogers takeover price. So, this is a way to discount the regulator risk for the deal going through. Let's say there's a 50/50 chance, because regulators may not approve the deal due to concentration of ownership. If the deal doesn't happen, Shaw shares will get hit hard. Best to take profits now and don't wait for the exact Rogers' price. Then, wait to see if the deal goes through; if it doesn't, you can buy back those shares.
They participate in the spread when the deal is announced. Shaw is trading 24% the price Rogers has offered. This is due to the fear of regulatory intervention. Thinks that the real concern is on the wireless side, and this deal works without the wireless side. They can divest Shaw's wireless side and still be a good deal. Thinks there is a 85% chance of the deal going through. (Analysts’ price target is $37.92)
The take out price is $40.50. Thinks that risk-reward it is pretty favourable. 6-9 months to closing with a double digits return opportunity. Good odds of the deal going through. Precedent transactions with BCE taking over Manitoba Telecom and others in the states. Rogers is willing to divest wireless division. Even if the deal falls appart, the downside should not be too bad, especially with the dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $39.08)