Stock price when the opinion was issued
It is certainly not beyond possibility. Bloomberg default ratio is 7.36%, which is very high for that indicator. Cash flow was negative in the last quarter, yet 12-month interest expenses were $36.1M net. With its small size and Cuban and other issues, we are not sure it could raise a lot of money with a dilutive equity issue. Most debt matures in 2026. Certainly any investment here needs to be considered extremely risky.
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Not comfortable with management. Debt load is too high. Has a big project in Madagascar that has not worked out. It is always one of the dangers when you put a lot of money into something that is far away. As commodity prices come back, it should help them. The company has tremendous upside, but feels bankruptcy is not out of the question.