Stockchase Opinions

James Telfser Royal Bank RY-T HOLD Apr 24, 2018

He just picked this up for one of his funds. When banks sell off more than 10%, as the Candian ones have over the past year, he pays attention. There's been talk of a housing slowdown, which of course effects banks, since credit could slow down. He likes RY among the Canadian banks, because RY has U.S. exposure, and is doing a lot in technology. Safe to hold.

$96.550

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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BUY

Banks in general have performed quite well this year in spite of the pressure of 5 year mortgages coming due at higher interest rates. Banks are good for long term holds of 5 to 10 years or longer with increasing dividends and capital appreciation. Royal Bank is the biggest.

COMMENT

The question asked the guest to compare the two with a view to buying one of them. She prefers Royal Bank right now. It just delivered record results and is growing at 10% year over year. TD has gone through a rough patch and is re-structuring which is eating into profits. She doesn't think Royal Bank will split.

BUY
Will there be a stock split?

A done deal. Stocks tend to split above $100, though a stock is meaningless. It's rate to see a bank rise 6% in one day after reporting monstrous earnings growth. RY has been dominant a long time. The PE remains attractived.

HOLD

Any potential stock split is irrelevant. The banks have been a wonderful thing in Canada, steady dividends that get raised frequently. Wouldn't sell and pay tax just to buy something else. Cooking on all cylinders. Best bank in Canada.

Know that all the banks have upped their non-Canadian exposure, so it's now about 50/50 Canada vs. outside Canada. RY has a very efficient US investment banking business, and is trying to expand retail. 

HOLD

By far the best bank in Canada, but premium for quality is a bit excessive. So he prefers some of the others.

BUY
stock split?

Is always possible. It happens once in a while among Canadian banks. One reason is that the bank would want to expand liquidity. RY is the captain of the Canadian industry.

PARTIAL SELL

Whole Canadian banking sector is fully valued, trading effectively at record highs on valuation. Not time to load up. Time to take some profits and invest in more defensive names, as Canadian economy is on a more fragile footing than other parts of the world.

HOLD

Increases dividend every year. Premium valuation for good reason -- good management team, global wealth management, big trading platforms, and good investment banking. Not as cheap as it was, but he holds because it's well run and a solid pillar of Canadian economy.

HOLD

Premium valuation for a premium bank with premium assets. Likes the name, but doesn't want to pay over $200. Didn't like many of the bank earnings last quarter because PCLs were released back into earnings once worst-case tariff scenario didn't come to pass. This was premature and too optimistic. Fears our economy might get worse before it gets better.

If you have it in your portfolio, keep it. But she's holding off on buying right now. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Outlook in Canada is a bit rosier than it was 6 or 12 months ago. He'd continue to hold the banks. Holds this name for almost all clients, and hasn't trimmed that position in many years. In fact, he adds when it sells off. It's his preference to own the highest-quality bank and ride it through the ups and downs, rather than switching among the banks.