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Raging River Exploration (RRX.TO)

COMMENT

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Crescent Point (CPG-T) taking a look at this as an acquisition. They are in the same area.

COMMENT

This is in the Viking play, and he thinks the economics have always been better in the Cardium. An exceptional company.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick February 3/14. Up 59.53%.) There might be a pull back in the summer, but the thesis is in place. Still likes.

COMMENT

An all oil play. Has done tremendously well. Sold his holdings, and saw an opportunity in Bellatrix Exploration (BXE-T), which was a mixed oil/gas play, so moved the money to that. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

A++ management with A++ asset. They did a phenomenal job of growing production, but it trades at such a huge premium that he is not quite willing to pay what the market will pay.

COMMENT

The day is gone when they are drilling to try and find a huge 5000 barrel a day well. This is now a manufacturing process. They drill a well and it comes online at 60-80 barrels. After a while it declines down to something like 40-50 barrels a day, and then stays fairly steady. They then try to enhance that production through water, polymer or some kind of enhancement.

BUY

You can expect upward revisions to guidance. The story is simple. South West Saskatchewan, Viking oil. Thinks they will give serious consideration to a dividend model, or to sell the company after a year or two.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 3/14. Up 39.44%.) This is continuing to do very, very well. Typical of some energy stocks right now.

HOLD

You look at the reserve report, the inventory they have and the capital efficiencies lately and you can see this is still going very, very well. He just lets winners run.

BUY

It has done extremely well. He follows it. It is a focus stock. The only concern is the Nat Gas price and the drilling program. Management has been doing a great job and it has more legs to go. It is producing.

PARTIAL SELL

This is one of those premium management teams. Recapitalized market supported them and they executed well. They still have a lot of upside to grow their business. If you own, consider taking some profits.

TOP PICK

Because they have the light oil play in Southwest Saskatchewan, it is a pretty nice development. Have some good cash flow and production increases. Just released some strong reserve growth. Use the 100 day moving average as either your exit point or to start reducing. It could consolidate around $7 for 2 or 3 months so you might see it going sideways.

BUY

Great management team, incredible growth and they executed flawlessly. 9k barrels a day and know how they get to 16. Thinks he can incrementally make money.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 5/13. Up 130.94%.) Sold his holdings at around $6 (23% upside?). This is now trading at a premium valuation.

COMMENT

Run by Neil Roszell and his team who has done this 2 other times. Very positive group. Oil focused in the Viking formation. Has traded this and is currently out of it. Not super expensive, compared to the peer group. Well-run company.

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