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Raging River Exploration (RRX.TO)

COMMENT

A very well-run company and have been very conscientious in maintaining a good balance sheet. Asset base is low decline and largely not in Alberta. The biggest opportunity in this downturn is to buy assets cheap, and they are clearly positioned to do that. This is self-sustaining at even $50 oil. Thinks this company will do very well in this market.

COMMENT

This holds up well because it has got great assets. Run by a super strong team. Trading at a slight premium, which it deserves, because it is a premium operator. Wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t do a merger, or acquire a larger company such as Tiene.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/15. Up 4.64%.) The management team and the growth profile are the 2 main things with this one. Have done a lot of drilling to date and has done extremely well. They do need to add on a new core area or add to their inventory in the Viking play itself.

DON'T BUY

They are in one of the most economic oil plays in Canada. There will be a lot of assets for sale. The market thinks there will be wildly accretive acquisitions. His concern is that the stock has risen so high that the expectations are almost impossible to meet. That is why this is not a name he owns.

COMMENT

This is one of the highest ranked companies in the oil and gas sector for him. Management team has been phenomenal. Their cost of production is very low. If you have a longer-term time horizon, you could go in at this price and do very well. Great management team.

COMMENT

Good operators and low cost and the balance sheet is almost net cash. In this environment, that is where you want to be.

TOP PICK

Excellent management team that has proven they can actually add value to shareholders. Very nice free cash flow profile. Even though they are not a dividend payer, that free cash flow can be built back in to grow production. Very clean balance sheet. They will be able to take advantage of the acquisition market that she sees coming.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

One of the great companies in the patch that has been clobbered like everything else. One of the best Viking oil developers in the space. He chose to stay away from this stock because 6 months ago you were paying full price for the management. That has now changed and this is definitely in his radar screen now. Their execution has been flawless. They are one of the best, lowest cost developers in the space. He would buy on any kind of downturn.

WATCH

If you believe in $80 oil then this is cheap. They are in one of the most economic plays in Canada. Does not see how the share price can go up over the short term, but in the long term you will do well.

DON'T BUY

Sold it. Incredibly high margins. Light oil has come off so the stock came off. They did an incredible job executing. But he wondered how much running room they had. How can they grow? He has done very well on it. They won’t get acquired if an acquirer can’t figure out how they will grow from here.

COMMENT

This is viewed as one of the best in class operators when it comes to the junior/intermediate oil and gas space. Management team is highly regarded. Growth is getting harder to come by because they have been so successful. If you are bullish on oil and you want to stay exposed there, this is one that you can hold on to.

BUY

Wishes he owned it. Horizontal drilling and multistage fracking. They have done a great job. Company will get a lot bigger, but get taken out at some time. They have to deal with a rapid decline rate.

BUY

A great story. Pulled back nicely recently. Oil weighted. You want to pick it up at $9.75. Great growth rates. Non-dividend payer. They will get to a point where they start to pay a dividend. A core holding amongst his growth oil companies.

HOLD

They have done far better than he thought they would. Wells are coming in lower in cost than they thought and productivity is better than they expected. But he is not willing to pay the premium multiple. They can afford a dividend, but their decline rate corporately should be about 45% but other dividend paying names are closer to 13%. He doesn’t think they have an intention of paying a dividend.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Finally trading at valuations where it can get taken over. Thinks the business will finally get acquired.

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