Renegade Petroleum Ltd. (RPL.V)

BUY

A massive disappointment for the street. There is a strategic review right now. They have a great asset, a low decline asset but they are saddled with a lot of debt. It is going to be tough for someone to make this work. Eventually the price will get cheap enough that it can be taken out. He has a very small amount to be sold for tax loss selling.

HOLD

Cut the dividend because of balance sheet pressures. Made, what they thought was an attractive acquisition, from Penn West Petroleum (PWT-T) but it turned of the true cost was higher than what they had believed. As a result, net debt was about $54 million higher than what they had told everybody. Company is looking at strategic alternatives. There are rumblings that somebody may acquire it.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Sold his holdings. Going through a strategic review. If they sell it for a good price, it does well, otherwise operationally they are not doing that great.

DON'T BUY

This has been an abject disappointment for him since the transaction in the fall that saw them make the transformational asset acquisition from Penn West (PWT-T). In their year-end report, they surprised the market with considerably more debt. Doesn’t feel anybody buying shares today will get a huge premium. Yield is greater than 8% and could be at risk.

HOLD

Dividend is high just because the stock has collapsed. CFO is leaving and they may try to sell off parts of the company to add liquidity to the balance sheet. Looks alright here. It has been oversold. Should see a bit of a bump over the next few weeks

COMMENT

Company is doing a strategic review. Have been punished in the marketplace for other things. When stocks go illiquid then selling begets selling. You sell into a vacuum. 20% dividend? Probably won’t end up being the yield. A victim of massive selling.

COMMENT

Acquired some assets from Penn West (PWT-T) and converted it into a dividend paying model. However, they put on a lot of debt when they made the acquisition and so some of the cash flow is not as attractive as it once was. They may be on the verge of cutting the dividend. Have left all options open with regarding strategic joint ventures, cutting the dividends, etc. With its drop in price, if you own continue to Hold or if you are a risk taker, you could venture in.

COMMENT

Made a strategic acquisition from Penn West and converted into a dividend paying company and, upon closing the acquisition, announced that their debt was $39 million higher than what they had thought, which led to a severe pummelling of the share price. Pursuing a strategic review for alternatives and he doesn’t think the company will be in its current form in 12-18 months. Thinks there will be strong interest in both their Viking and Southeast Saskatchewan assets.

COMMENT

Has come off quite a bit because they took on too much debt when they acquired some of Penn West assets for $400 million. Promised a dividend model which would have yielded 9% but is yielding 16% now, which is not sustainable. Payout ratio of about 135%. If they can attract a buyer or streamline the dividend to make it more reasonable, it would probably be a good time to buy it.

HOLD

18% dividend is actually sustainable, although market is telling you it is not. An acquisition has not worked out and debt is too high and now every option is on the table including sale of assets or outright sale of the company. The dividend could be cut for this reason.

COMMENT

Would you buy or sell Renegade Petro and is the dividend of 20% sustainable? She knows Renegade well and used to own it but sold it around $4.20 when their debt went up. They will have to make a change whether it be the dividend or on the management side.

SELL

Likes it. At this oil price the dividend is not sustainable. They addressed operational issues. If they cut the distribution he thinks the market would agree.

HOLD

He sold. All of a sudden after an acquisition there is a 100% payout ratio. They are now saying they are going to restructure. They should cut the dividend. Get out if it runs for no reason. He lost money on this one. There is not much more downside on this one.

SELL ON STRENGTH

19% Yield. Company may be in a little trouble and dividend could be cut. The dividend is not making up for the rather large losses. This is a parabolic move to the downside. Might have a bounce on the short term, but he would not be an owner of this stock for long.

DON'T BUY

A poster child of how to not execute properly on some of the things they said they were going to do. Had promised they were going to go ahead and operate as a dividend model in the oil/gas space. It has been unfortunate. There are lots of assets that have to be restructured. The dividend of 19.82% is not sustainable. You should also look at the pedigree of the 3 new directors to understand what they do, because they are the ones that are going to have to save your investment.

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