Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYMar 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
It was a top pick last month and he still likes the valuation. There is lots of growth ahead for natural gas since the demand for natural gas is expected to increase in North America in the next 10 years. This is due to the switch from coal to gas, LNG, on-shoring, and the needs of data centres. PPL is well diversified, has good supplies, a healthy balance sheet and good growth. There was a draw-down early in 2025 but he is not sure why.