Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOTOP PICKJul 15, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
Likes it as a core income name. Uniquely placed in Western Canada to benefit from rising nat gas production. Guided to 4-6% EBITDA growth through 2026. Self-funding, with backlog and projects in place to support growth. Implies dividend can also grow in mid-single-digit range. Yield is 5.35%, track record of increasing dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $55.33)Will benefit from increased LNG export facility takeaway capacity. Declining interest rates will be a tailwind for the sector.