Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOTOP PICKDec 21, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
Energy infrastructure. Well diversified across the different commodities of natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquid. Well positioned. Likes latest purchase from ENB, little integration risk. Operating and cost synergies. 70% of contracts are take or pay, so reliable cashflow. Yield is 5.9%, and dividend will probably go up a bit each year.
(Analysts’ price target is $50.53)Encouraged that stock price has just about recovered from the funding equity issue discount of 7%, meaning the market liked the transaction.