Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOTOP PICKApr 06, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
PPL provides key infrastructure to the energy sector in Western Canada. It operates 2.8 mmboed of pipeline capacity along with 11 million barrels of tank inventory and over 100 mboed of rail terminal capacity. It trades at 8x earnings, under 2x book value, and boasts a ROE of 19%. The dividend is great and backed by a payout ratio of 50% of cash flow. We like that cash reserves are growing while debt is aggressively being retired and shares bought back. We recommend placing a stop loss at $41, looking to achieve $52.50 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 5.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $52.27)