Stockchase Opinions

John Stephenson Pembina Pipeline Corp PPL-T COMMENT Aug 03, 2017

A really quality name and has been for some time. They control many parts of the Western Sedimentary Basin, and are very strong. It is going to swing up and down with the commodity, even though they have no commodity sensitivity to its earnings. Doesn’t think you can go too far wrong with this.

$42.620

Stock price when the opinion was issued

pipelines
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BUY

Loves it. Income name mainly, with some earnings growth. Probably the worst performer of the group over the last year. Does have midstream infrastructure, so assets aren't as bulletproof as those of an ENB. ENB is always his first choice, though PPL has better long-term growth outlook. He'd buy here.

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

PPL is up 4% this year and 25% over 52 weeks. It's 18X earnings with a 3.23% dividend that has shown decent recent growth. Debt is high as is common in the sector, but OK earnings growth is expected over the next two years. Cash flow is high and stable, though we would like to see higher free cash flow conversion. The share count has declined over the past six years with buybacks. All in, we would consider it OK. Fundamentals and sector outlook are fine. It is priced well. We would not expect huge growth here, but we would consider it decent for income and potential growth over time.
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TOP PICK

It is the third largest mid-streamer in Canada. He owns all three but considers this one the most attractive of them. Has the largest infrastructure in the Montney region. It is positioned to participate in the increase of LNG exports from the BC coast. Its dividend is 5 1/2% with a payout ratio that is more conservative as well as having a healthier balance sheet than the other two. It is the same price as a year ago.           Buy 13  Hold 6  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $60.01)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 10/24, Up 6%)

Still her favourite pipeline, especially at these levels. Best growth trajectory, and in best strategic position to handle growth in nat gas shipping with LNG Canada. Alliance Pipeline pricing has been an overhang. This is the one to own based on dividend growth, yield, and capex plan.

COMMENT

Yields 5.6% with a reasonable payout ratio but the cash flow is not moving enough to increase the dividend. He held it but moved into a gold stock for better returns. On pipelines in general, there are not any in their 'OK to buy list'. 

TOP PICK

With the idea of building income in a portfolio. Out of the spotlight, but with a catalyst. Everything is bad news around this name. Alliance Pipeline is a very special asset going from Alberta to Chicago area. Contracting issues right now, and stock's slid on the uncertainty. Those issues are fixable 1-2 years from now, it's just not known right now what the fix is. 

High quality, lots of prospects. Doesn't issue shares as much as other companies, business plan is tight. Can incrementally grow over the next few years. Might actually drop another $2. He put one leg in, would put another one in if it dropped. Yield is 5.7%.

(Analysts’ price target is $59.95)
TOP PICK

Energy infrastructure in Canada is one of the great areas to invest in. Fits in well with natural gas being moved east--west. Under pressure in last year due to tolling on Alliance Pipeline, but that's more than factored in. Lowest valuation of the group, so more potential for growth. Yield is 5.60%.

Canada's realized it needs to change some of its behaviour, and part of that includes energy infrastructure.

(Analysts’ price target is $59.20)
BUY

He is adding because of the 5 1/2% yield. The toll dispute was resolved on the weekend and it is ready for a new leg higher. Buy and wait for the market to recognize some of its value.

WEAK BUY

Has a rock-solid dividend. Prefers TC Energy and many Enbridge, partly because of US policy and the changing view in Canada about building pipelines. PPL would benefit less so than these companies. 

BUY

Should benefit from the energy boom. Has held for 5 years, last year hasn't been the best. Can't pinpoint why it's down, but looks good fundamentally. Loves the improving ROC; used to be 5-6%, but now up to 9% (pretty good for a utility). Palatable valuation at 11x EV/EBITDA.