PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Gone through his target price so he is now considering what to do with his holdings. Still a lot of potash inventory overhanging North American market. CEO is talking about potash pricing around $400 and he sees a bit of risk on the earnings for 2010. Things should get better in 2010-2011. Would prefer to buy in the $100 range.

PARTIAL BUY

Fundamentally likes agri-food but this has had quite a nice run. There is a takeover frenzy in the sector, which is good news. Because we are in a sideways consolidating market, you don't have to chase anything. If you want, you could buy a bit and then average down if the stock drops.

BUY

Earnings have been poor when buyers went on strike and refused to buy. With a 2-3 year time horizon this would be a good entry point. Likes agriculture as a theme. Nutrients are going to be required by farmers and emerging nations.

DON'T BUY

His technicals indicate this is not a stock to own. Estimates on their quarterly and annual earnings are coming down.

PARTIAL BUY

A natural fertilizer. Long-term investment so continue to add.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 37%.) Stock is trading sideways but the options have some of the highest volatility of any stock. E.g. bought the stock and wrote a Call option for 1 month at the stock price that he bought it at and was paid 6.5%. If the stock stays where it is he makes 6.5%, if it goes up he stays at 6.5% and if the stock goes down 6.5% he breaks even.

BUY

Did relatively well in the recent pullback. Holding up well because of a rumour that BHP Billiton (BHP-N) would like to buy them. Still a couple of quarters away from decent earnings.

BUY

BHP may buy this, maybe. You can’t not buy fertilizer for more than one year and farmers didn’t for a year. People are going to eat.

BUY

He’s gone for the thing that it is harder to produce more of.

DON'T BUY

Has been under performing the market. Talk of them being bought out and if they are, possibly there would be good value. Don’t make a stock purchase on the assumption that it is being taken over. Agriculture has been the weakest sector.

BUY

There has been poor demand for fertilizer over this past year. Things have to improve in the next 6 to 12 months, as farmers cannot continue to delay putting on fertilizer.

BUY

By cutting back on the supply side they will tighten the market up and they can do it because they have 20% market share. There will be demand going forward. Bumper crops in the US and as farmers get their cash stream they will have to put some fertilizer back in.

DON'T BUY

Technically looks really weak. Had a positive trend up until May/June but has now entered into a downward trend. Expecting it to go down to the mid-$80's. It would have to go up to about $100 before you Buy. Had a lower low, which is not a good sign.

BUY

In the penalty box because of high expectations management set a few years ago. Resources have rallied this year but this one is down or flat. Have been indications the Chinese will be signing contracts at the same price or lower than India signed. Long-term this is a stock you would want to own and this is an opportune time to buy it if you have a 2 or 3-year horizon.

COMMENT

Have been exercising production discipline to keep the price high. A short-term negative is that the Chinese negotiation has not been settled for 2009. Thinks the stock will come back.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)