Stock price when the opinion was issued
POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.
POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.
The acquisition has been delayed. They are picking a new name. They will have to sell some assets. Canadian and Chinese regulatory authorities have approved the acquisition. It will likely close in late Q4 this year. There will be a lack of competition in the potash industry. There is a lot of supply coming on in it.
Expect they will hold their dividend, but he would not expect any dividend increases for a while. Just spent $8.3 billion in expansion in capacity that the world really doesn’t need at this point. Not overly optimistic of potash in general. There has been flattish demand globally. He is Short this, but the reason is for hedging. He thinks Mosaic (MOS-N) is a more attractive player which has about $3 billion of corporate buybacks that will be taking place this year.