Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

A mecca for AI in Silicon Valley. Really picked up on the Foundry side. As a result, pretty fully priced. 12-month price target of $24.10. Trim a bit. Pretty volatile, so can probably get it around $21.50. Certainly add if goes under $20.

It is not cheap, but it has its merits: growth, balance sheet, market leadership, large contracts, long history, growing cash flow. The main issue is stock-based compensation and a CEO many see as eccentric. But, sales will double from 2021 to 2025,  and it is now profitable. It will we think get into the S&P 500 index in the next year. Its data analytics is already established, and the customer count is growing. It is not risk-free, and many see it as having unsustainable 'cult' status with investors. But the last quarter was very good, and  guidance was strong. We are quite comfortable with it overall, but have a five year plan here at least. 
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Most of business is with government. Big data. Extreme valuations of around 9x revenue, so a lot of future optimism already built in. Doesn't fit his conservative client profile.

We quite like the company and its long term prospects. It data mining solutions used AI before it was trending. It is growing nicely, winning big contracts and is now profitable. The last quarter was very strong. We would be comfortable keeping it. 
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They have a $178 -million contract with the army, so this will go higher despite hitting a 52-week high today.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, European defence stocks rallied. If you park your ESG, you will see long-term structural growth in defence stocks. PLTR is okay, but prefers defence contractors.

Was downgraded to a hold today. Shares have been parabolic so far this year, but the company has become profitable even without higher defence spending that they have depended on in past years. It's an AI story and are expanding the commercial product division which will grow profits even more.

Believes investors should sell at current price. Anything below $10 is a good price. Valuation way too high right now. Would wait for weakness in share price before buying. Recent earnings were strong, but not incredible. 

High alpha (potential to be a home run), high beta (going to swing around a lot). A lot is already built in to future success. Trades at 8-9x revenue. High degree of risk. Doesn't suit his client profile, his job is to protect their wealth and responsibly add to it.

It has 2 business lines: Gotham the service part and Foundry the mining data part, AI etc. It has a lot more to go because it has the ability to change its pricing and is now compartmentalized. It is well positioned for the long term. His favourite way to pick up stocks is when they move sideways - or on a pullback.

Has done extremely well. Its two platforms give it two horses in the race. Room for lots of players in this playground with an addressable market of $120B. Buy here, and pick up more around $17-18. Momentum of AI euphoria behind it.

Also look at AYX in his Top Picks, a cheaper competitor. PLTR has the government contracts, with longer average contract length, that AYX doesn't.

Does not own shares. Strong technology but valuation very high valuation (12x revenue). Risky investment as profits not stable. Difficult to predict outcome of business. Would not recommend investing. 

Rising profit margins and cash flow. Making a lot of noise in AI, so watch for their AI news when they report in early November. They attract the best clients in gen AI. They've had some new contracts. Two-thirds of revenue are from 20 clients, and 27% from the top 3, so they need to broaden. Watching, but will buy on dips. Expects a lot of volatility. Is now overvalued. Class-action lawsuits are a concern.

The chart shows a base in a cup formation and is now showing a handle, which is good because it could lead to upside. Likely to break out to resistance of $27, which it will likely struggle a bit. Can buy now and sell at $27.

The contract is a validating sign for the company, but in terms of revenue it represents a small contribution to its top line. Analysts expect strong sales and earnings growth rates in the coming years, and the company has improved its profitability levels. In terms of valuation, it trades at a premium valuation (13.3X forward sales and 57.6X forward earnings) due to its high growth rates and operations in an expanding industry. Overall, it has solid market share and growth potential, but due to its high valuation there is room for multiple contraction. For a high-risk investor, seeking long-term growth, we would be comfortable adding here, however, we might expect some choppiness in the short to intermediate term.
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