Opinions
Colin Stewart
Norbord Inc
OSB-T
WATCH
Apr 23, 2019
US housing looks cloudy? OSB is tied to new home starts in the U.S. Well-run company that generates a lot of free cash flow in different times of the cycles. Good capital allocators. The best time to buy this is when everyone hates it and commodity prices are low, like now. If you think the US economy will stay strong and that US housing will pick up, then lumber and stocks like OSB will pick up. Looks closely at OSB now.
$32.210
Stock price when the opinion was issued
household goods
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BUY
He thinks we have seen house prices turning the corner. He likes it here. March sales beat expectations in the US. Prices of houses is what drives this stock. Variable dividend that pays you to wait. If you think that we are going into a recession (he doesn't) you don't want to own this name.
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DON'T BUY
The OSB manufacturer for roofing and flooring. Prices for products has collapsed and new capacity is coming on-stream. She would not be buying a commodity based stock like this. If you are long already and the US economy continues to grow and interest rates do come down there may be upside in the housing sector. The over capacity issue is an overriding concern for her, however.
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DON'T BUY
This was a great performer in 2017-18, but with housing starts--and the economy--slowing in the U.S., it's under pressure. Tariffs to lumber didn't help. The yield pays over 5%, but in this late part of the cycle, OCB is likley not covering the dividend every quarter. They should trim the dividend. He prefers WEF for their dividend and high-end niche. That said, you could pick away at this sector when it's been beaten up like this.
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