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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

HOLD
A big part of their assets is the partnership with OPTI (OPC-T) in the oil sands. The buzzard acquisition that they made this year will add to production. Not a big fan of the oils right now on a valuation basis, but this is one of their top picks in the producing group.
DON'T BUY
Sold their position when they did their August re-balance. His model price is $47.46.
WEAK BUY
Sold his position when the stock was looking pricey. Have a lot of long term growth potential but will be more challenged in the near term. Just went through a very large transaction so will have to work through that and integrate. If you are bullish on oil this is not a bad company longer term. Trying a new process in the oil sands which can be risky.
WEAK BUY
An OK company, but wouldn't be his #1 pick. Have a fair bit of debt. Their debt to total cap is 60% versus its peers at 37%. Have a high ratio of debt which came about through their Buzzard field.
DON'T BUY
A little rich right now in terms of some of its peers. Trading at about 5.7 X enterprise value to EBITDA which is to its peers which are more of the 4.5/4.6 range. Has a debt to cap ratio of 60% versus 39%.
DON'T BUY
Feels they have struggles with their production. Have upside potentially longer term in the UK. Prefers others. If you have it as a mix in a large portfolio, you could keep it.
WEAK BUY
Has not had the same performance that you would have got out of an Encana (ECA-T), CNQ (CNQ-T) or some of the others. Maybe because the company has gone through a restructuring. Have sold off a lot of property and paid off debt. Their actual production has not been roaring ahead. Now starting to move ahead. Still not his favourite.
BUY
Has a pretty good looking chart. Interesting oil sands project.
DON'T BUY
Feels there are better places to put your money. It's in the process of restructuring itself. Some of the assets they have taken on are going to be good producers 1/1.5 years out. Sees potential for production decline so you don't want to hold an oil company if production is going to drop.
BUY
Lagger, however over long term has potential for growth.
BUY
Have announced that it will be spinning out the chemical side and becoming a pure oil/gas company. That is positive.
DON'T BUY
Recently sold off and took some profits. Didn't like their Gulf of Mexico properties and the risk level that was involved. Recent numbers have been much better. Well down the list of majors that he would buy. Consider taking profits.
STRONG BUY
5 year chart shows an upward trend. One year chart shows support starting beginning of January with a breakout today, because of a significantly higher earnings report than was expected. Seasonality is from the end of January to the end of May and in the last 10 years you would have been ahead 8 out of 10 times with an average 12% return.
HOLD
The least favourite of that whole production group, partly because they've done a complete reorganization of their assets. Seem to be sorting themselves out but on a multiple basis by the time they finish the whole process you're looking at not a whole lot of production growth. Going to have another look at it.
DON'T BUY
Has great assets. Has 2 large projects, Buzzard and Long Lake. Won't see production from either of them until '06/07. Has an underperform on it because there's $1.5 billion assets to be sold and can't see any production growth nor cash flow growth. OK for a long term play.
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