Opinions
Gavin Graham
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA-Q
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Jun 16, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentNVDA has had some setbacks with AI competition and trade war uncertainty, but recently reported earnings showed a 69% increase in revenues --including a 73% increase in data center revenues. It trades at 46x earnings and supports a ROE over 100%. We like that cash reserves are growing, while shares are aggressively bought back and debt is retired. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $106, looking to achieve $172 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 0.03%
(Analysts’ price target is $172.22)Semis are cyclical with their highs and lows, and we are possibly in the early innings of AI--who knows where AI will take us. NVDA is getting cheaper as the stock price rises. As earnings rise, so will the stock. In the past 1.5 years, NVDA shares have not risen as fast as earnings growth.
Used to make 75% gross margins, but those have jumped to 90%. If it goes back to historic gross margins, even if sales continue, you'll see a huge degradation in profit. Sweet spot in terms of demand. Market thinks it can do no wrong. Worries that demand will abate or just normalize. Good news is baked in. Watch your position size.
Premium contentPremium contentProbably a good place to write some calls against it, especially as average analyst price target is ~$175. Over next few days, analysts will probably up price targets due to H20 chips being allowed to China. It'll be king of the hill for at least 18 more months. Should definitely be in your top 5.
(Analysts’ price target is $175.00)
Too late to invest in company - stock price too high.
Wait for shares to fall before buying.
Strong business, but valuation too high.
20-30x revenue trading price too high.