Brian Acker, CANova Chemicals Corp.NCX.TOWATCHJun 19, 2006
His model price is $39 and has dropped as earnings estimates have come down. As a positive differential of 26%. Looks interesting, but the fundamental value is eroding with the earnings.
Represented unbelievable value but had near-term risk of default. If you own, you have a risk that the buyer walks. He would take the money is there are a lot of other opportunities.
One of the giants of ethylene production. Very cyclical. Big debt and low pricing problems. Thinks it should be looked at as it may be a fabulous buy for the next cycle.
Market is very fearful right now that the company is going to go bankrupt. As a big debt load and chemical prices, specifically ethylene, have collapsed. There are strong rumours that the Alberta government might step in. Wouldn't panic and Sell. The prudent thing to do would be to take half off the table.
Gets tarred with an industrial chemical company. When investors are looking for liquidity they sell anything. Should respond on the upside as the market gets going. Costs are coming down because of lower oil prices.
Chemical stocks have suffered dramatically along with all things related to commodities. Selling pressure in this one may be over. From a risk/reward perspective you have to pay a lot of attention. When chemical prices turn, they turn with a vengeance.
Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK.
Has been a real disappointment. There has been fabulous performance from virtually every basic material stock in the TSX while this one has lost people money over the last several years. There is a lot more by you than what the share price shows. Could possibly be a takeover at some point.
Has come under a lot of pressure recently. A very difficult business to time properly because of petroleum prices moving around. At this price, it's a name that he would have a look at. He has been thinking about buying it himself. Very volatile. If you own and it got up to the $35/$36 area he would be a seller.
They use natural gas to make ethylene for producing plastics. They have sold off because all of their products are economically sensitive. Trading at 8X earnings, which is low. If you believe there is going to be a recession, you do not want to own a deep cyclical company such as this.
Being impacted a lot by the strong Cdn$. Feedstock and energy prices going forward will be a big worry for them. There is a fairly tight styrene market, but have not been able to pass the increased prices on. An extremely hard company to read.
You have to think about the feed stock prices on this. Has some good cost advantages based on their location in Alberta. Earned $2.05 in 06 and is estimated to earn $2.10-$2.15 over the next couple of years.