Michael Sprung
Nova Chemicals Corp.
NCX-T
HOLD
Aug 31, 2007
You have to think about the feed stock prices on this. Has some good cost advantages based on their location in Alberta. Earned $2.05 in 06 and is estimated to earn $2.10-$2.15 over the next couple of years.
Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK.
Chemical stocks have suffered dramatically along with all things related to commodities. Selling pressure in this one may be over. From a risk/reward perspective you have to pay a lot of attention. When chemical prices turn, they turn with a vengeance.
Gets tarred with an industrial chemical company. When investors are looking for liquidity they sell anything. Should respond on the upside as the market gets going. Costs are coming down because of lower oil prices.
Market is very fearful right now that the company is going to go bankrupt. As a big debt load and chemical prices, specifically ethylene, have collapsed. There are strong rumours that the Alberta government might step in. Wouldn't panic and Sell. The prudent thing to do would be to take half off the table.
One of the giants of ethylene production. Very cyclical. Big debt and low pricing problems. Thinks it should be looked at as it may be a fabulous buy for the next cycle.
Represented unbelievable value but had near-term risk of default. If you own, you have a risk that the buyer walks. He would take the money is there are a lot of other opportunities.
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