Ron Meisels
Nova Chemicals Corp.
NCX-T
BUY
Jul 07, 2005
Had a selloff early this year and broke below the 200 day moving average. You know that the stock sold off because of some negative event, so wait for the day of the announcementwhich is usually the time the stock is going to start to make some kind of return. As long as it holds the roughly $37 area, it would be a good time to step in.
Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK.
Chemical stocks have suffered dramatically along with all things related to commodities. Selling pressure in this one may be over. From a risk/reward perspective you have to pay a lot of attention. When chemical prices turn, they turn with a vengeance.
Gets tarred with an industrial chemical company. When investors are looking for liquidity they sell anything. Should respond on the upside as the market gets going. Costs are coming down because of lower oil prices.
Market is very fearful right now that the company is going to go bankrupt. As a big debt load and chemical prices, specifically ethylene, have collapsed. There are strong rumours that the Alberta government might step in. Wouldn't panic and Sell. The prudent thing to do would be to take half off the table.
One of the giants of ethylene production. Very cyclical. Big debt and low pricing problems. Thinks it should be looked at as it may be a fabulous buy for the next cycle.
Represented unbelievable value but had near-term risk of default. If you own, you have a risk that the buyer walks. He would take the money is there are a lot of other opportunities.