Micron TechnologyMURISKYJul 02, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 02, 2026. Market Open.
Based on previous cycles where momentum can turn on a dime, Micron is especially vulnerable to this. Chips are acting like a commodity. That said, he doesn't see their share price or earning declining. A caveat is adding capacity, which has always killed the chips cycle. The difference is that now it takes longer given supply chain issues to add this capacity. Maybe one or two years out, MU will turn, doesn't know.
Demands is outstripping supply, driving prices up. Is this the right time enter a stock that's up so much (220% this year)? No technician will say it is. That said, the fundamentals support MU right now. Twelve months from now, capex can continue at this clip, though she is skeptical earnings can continue to grow 20-30% every quarter. Semis need a cooling off period.
It's too late to buy it. It up 219% this year. MU is seeing a massive uptick in earnings growth due to price increases. This situation rarely lasts after a couple of years when peers compete and become suppliers. Also, the LLMs and data centres will eventually find ways to use less memory. All it takes is for someone to say that they have found 20% more memory efficiency and MU stock could be $700 in two seconds.
It took Nvidia years to reach a trillion dollars, but Micron only 48 days. This screams it's meme-ish, is in the wrong hands, not in thoughtful hands. You could still make money buying calls, but MU has no investment thesis, just a speculation one. Still trades at 10x 2027 PE because there's a backlog. Speculation, not an investment.
A bit late in the cycle to put new $$ in, though there's about 2-3 more years in the memory cycle. Prices have really spiked (up 7x). If prices stall, and even if volume continues to ramp up, people will stop being so excited. Still upside, but risky at this point.
Memory is a big area for the agentic AI wave, but there are better ways to participate.