Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKJun 15, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 27, 2026. Market Open.
Software and spending concerns are problems. What will OpenAI do for MSFT? But if quantum computing happens, MSFT is one of the three hyperscalers who will take advantage. Google and MSFT have produced chips for quantum computing; MSFT's chip is self-cooling, which extends their lifetime. MSFT is volatile, but he wants to add to his position.
Buy it, put it away for 10 years, do very well. Suffering from software outflows from large ETFs. Revenue still growing in teens, even better on EPS. Investing a lot in capacity (but they can afford it), which customers have signed onto for the next several years. Trades at 20x PE, yet nothing's really changed.
Three durable growth engines: Azure, enterprise software, AI monetization. Key is that it keeps turning its installed base into higher-value subscriptions and usage-based revenue, while preserving margins and cash generation. Market's concerned that margins and cash will be pressured as Gen AI gets rolled out through competitors.
Azure remains the clearest growth driver. Key competitive advantage with enterprise software is that one stack bundles infrastructure, security, identity, and data/productivity tools. Raises costs to switch, which provides pricing power. Yield is 0.93%.
The lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
There are legitimate concerns of the AI product being lesser than others, as well as the software component. Its collaboration with Open AI has caused it to fall behind others in the race. However it recently re-negotiated a deal with Open AI to explore other avenues which should open things up for Microsoft. The Azure cloud offering is growing at 40% plus, and its software offerings eg Windows, etc. are a perfect launching pad for an AI application. It is 30 % off its highs. Buy 68 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)