Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKJan 29, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 04, 2026. Market Open.
Thinks this name, as well as a lot of the big tech names (perhaps with the exception of GOOG), will go sideways for the next several years. Highs of $500-550 are what we'll get. He loved it in the last 6 months. Now he's out. Thinks you'll get a chance to buy again at $400 or below.
Likes it at 20-25x PE, but not at 30-35x. It's that simple. Too expensive for what it's likely to deliver.
(Note the short timeframe.) Market's been hating these companies due to uncertainty about capital spending. Revenues are accelerating, yet market's ignoring that. Continues to buy more. FCF should become much higher in late 2028. Topline is growing faster than expenditures, and will overtake them at some point.
Since reporting last week, they've rallied almost 130 points. MSFT is at the epicenter of the software (SAAS) socks and ultimately is where you'll make money as these models as these models commoditize. MSFT said, this capex spending is here to stay, but software isn't going away. She didn't sell it before earnings (it had been lagging all year), because she firmly believed in the CEO who did a great job of reading the room, of not doing what Google's doing. They said they will have free cash flow and won't go to the debt market (MSFT and JNJ are the only triple-A companies). Cloud revenue beat and guided upward. Still gotta see what they're spending on capex, but they're monetizing cloud. People are looking at this in a new light as it is re-rated.
Was the most impressive stock this quarter. He was pounding the table on it before the quarter. It's not a software stock, but a utility. Everyone uses their products every day. MSFT has Co-Pilot, LinkedIn, Word, Teams and more. Operating margins are huge, still robust. Balance sheet is solid. Their RPO is north of 650 billion. Great managers. But the stock has run up a lot so mind the gap with the valuation.
Microsoft Corp engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA. Social media mentions are up 514% in the past 24h.