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Microsoft CorpMSFTBUYNov 21, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
There are legitimate concerns of the AI product being lesser than others, as well as the software component. Its collaboration with Open AI has caused it to fall behind others in the race. However it recently re-negotiated a deal with Open AI to explore other avenues which should open things up for Microsoft. The Azure cloud offering is growing at 40% plus, and its software offerings eg Windows, etc. are a perfect launching pad for an AI application. It is 30 % off its highs. Buy 68 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)Tech companies like this got too expensive and got ahead of themselves. MSFT is still growing in double digits. AI won't go away, so the companies that invested will benefit for many years. MSFT is depressed now because it's not as an exciting story as Micron or Nvidia. The PE of 22x is attractive. Software isn't going anywhere.
He has no software exposure (13% tech across the firm, a significant underweight). Have to pick your spots. Agentic AI puts software companies in a tricky position. Investing heavily in AI infrastructure, so less $$ to return to shareholders. Trading better than only 30% of S&P stocks in last 52 weeks.
On the other hand, sees semiconductors in a similar vein to copper and a call on the economy, and where pricing power gives inflation protection.
Quant investors are chasing news, so GOOG is going higher and other names are going lower. Mag 7's are only keeping pace with S&P performance, despite their dominating the index.
Azure has been doing very well, revenue growth is better than AWS from AMZN or GOOG. That shouldn't change anytime soon. You have to understand that the volatility of these stocks is almost double the market. Street was satisfied with earnings, but not satisfied on growth compared to expectations. So stock's fallen.
He continues to buy more. It will be involved with AI and with the potential for quantum computing going forward. You need to own at least one of the hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN), and this is the one he owns.