Microsoft CorpMSFTBUY ON WEAKNESSApr 26, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 06, 2026. Market Open.
It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. If was the only to say it would trim spending. It had the best report of the three megacaps that reported this week, beating revenues and earnings while Google and Amazon missed both. Azure grew 48% and cash flow was positive. Capex spending for the quarter was much lower than expectations. Their spending will accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027.
He can't believe the market pushed this down to $400. The story then was that MSFT had too much tied to OpenAI, and that AI would disrupt their software business, Narratives change. MSFT is growing top and bottom line at a huge rate. He's own this since 2012. They will continue to see big earnings growth and deliver enormous free cash flow. Once the data centres are built, the hyperscalers will be the big winners.
He wouldn't but today, but neither would he sell. So much of investing is buying at the right price, and then letting things work. Valuation's a bit rich. Look to add on a pullback. Well positioned on AI. Well diversified. Great balance sheet, lots of cashflow. Important that some of these companies can do massive capex, but not be FCF-negative.
This is the best day for MSFT stock since last Nov. 11 when it came off the bottom. The difference with today is that MSFT was already climbing going into yesterday's report. Now, the stakes are so high that it will be hard for MSFT to keep surprising to the upside. It's trading on a 20x on EV to EBITDA, within the three-year median, but above the 5-10-year average. Can MSFT keep delivering upside beats? Don't enter this stock today, but wait for a lower price. Kudos to long-term shareholders of which he is not one. Today is a spectacular move for a megacap. That said, we're going to have an AI bubble later this year. Money managers consider MSFT the safe way to play AI.