Magna Int'l. (A)MG.TOCOMMENTJan 21, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
In 2021, they invested heavily in EV, but the demand didn't materialize. Since then, they've suffered that overhang, plus the impact of tariffs. But they fixed these problems with Chinese OEMs and have gained market share in smart door handles and driverless systems. Are gaining market share. Doing a great job.
Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.
If you own it, don't need the cash, and have a 5-10 year time horizon, you should be fine. But there could be further weakness from here.
It won't pull back much from here. Given tariffs, this space is uncertain, but eventually we will settle this tariff war. Auto manufacturing is so emeshed between both countries that it would take a very long time to rejig it. This or Linamar are fine, but Magna pays a higher PE, though trades at a higher price-to-book. Your horizon must be long to own this, like 3-4 years.
Don't yet know how things are going to shake out. Rhetoric is at an all-time high. Short term, it's impacting our economy because the US is our largest trading partner. Reality is that there's a lot of value-added auto manufacturing in both Canada and US; the 2 countries are inextricably linked. Tariffs will be punitive for both Canada and the US.
Hope is not an investment strategy, but we have to hope that rational heads can prevail so that there continues to be a steady flow of goods across our borders.
There is industrywide concern that we could be at peak auto sales. In Q3 they guided lower on their Asian margins. Also, had 3 North American plants with operational difficulties. They report in US$s, so the Canadian and US operations are dragging them down. The good stuff is that the came out last week and boosted their sales outlook by 12%-15% for the next 3 years. They believe their margins are going to expand in all their geographies. Combined with some buybacks, he sees about 16% per share growth over the next couple of years. Cheap relative to the group. If we are in a correction in a bull market, this is a name you buy.