Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

In the space of digital advertising, she owns Alphabet rather than Facebook. The valuation of Facebook has contracted recently, making it appear cheaper, but she is waiting, probably for a year, to see the cost and effects of new government regulations.

I don't know how this company makes money. Why do people pay to see, say, my pictures online? Disclosure: he's never made money in social media. He's not the best guy to talk about this stock; he doesn't understand this business.

He has owned it in the past. It is a great company. The valuation is not as challenged as it once was. He prefers GOOGL-Q to play technology. Trump could impose more regulation on these companies. GOOGL-Q is cheaper on a price to earnings basis and is less risky on a regulatory basis right now.

A pillar of the advertising community, because it’s easy to spend ad money on Facebook. His issue with social media platforms is that people stop using them. FB has stature and management quality. Thinks you’re OK to own it, because it’s not going out of business.

He is responding to a question about the impact of privacy or antitrust regulation on Facebook. Facebook is huge and is wildly profitable. However, privacy issues are not going away, and the regulatory environment can only get tougher, at some point. In addition, individuals are getting smarter, and many younger users are not using Facebook. Some of the alternatives are beneficial to Facebook, but others not. User growth has matured. Management has done a fantastic job, but the stock is still priced for significant growth. If the stock misses earnings by even a penny or two, investors might see a 10% to 15% drop in share price, and that could be a time to buy.

Internet stocks tend to do well from September to end of year. Technically, had a significant negative reaction to earnings. Going to be a lid on the stock until the recent gap gets closed. Nothing special right now.

Model price is $157.26. He sees it as an opportunity to pick this stock up now. It is above its model price and he has had it for some time until selling recently but it was moving from a value name into a growth name. He would be a buyer here. It is a good name.

He was amused by its last earnings. They already have two billion users, so they won't grow by leaps anymore. Be real--investors were disappointed by their weak user growth? Rather, what share of online advertising do they hold? With Google, Facebook dominates here. Their ad revenue stream is deep and long. Advertisers continue to go to the internet, which is Facebook and Google. Advertising, not user growth, is the metric to look at. The plunge on Facebook after earnings last month was way overdone.

He says it is a hold because of the regulatory environment. There is not another option for small businesses to go to to advertize because of the number of users. If they can keep chipping away at the revenue per user, it will be positive. There could be some regulatory pressures as we head into mid-term elections.

Sports streaming is a big step. It has a natural propensity to grab market share compared to its competitors. Likes their positioning in content dissemination. This could be the Netflix moment for Facebook. (Analysts’ price target is $206.74.)

Revenues are going to be lower and expenses are going to be higher. They have the cash. To be able to buy this on this dip is an opportunity. Going to generate $20B in cash. Valuation is a struggle with these types of stocks, but the cash flow is incredible. Yield = 0% (Analysts’ price target is $206.74)

It’s had a bumpy road, with the reputational risk that it has been addressing. This happens with all big companies. As they get large, third parties and governments get involved and pose new challenges. He does not expect much new regulation given the current attitudes toward intellectual property protection and free speech. They have 2 billion active monthly users, which is an advertiser’s dream. Along with monetizing their Facebook user base, they are monetizing other things such as Instagram, which is taking new technology forward. This illustrates that the traditional Facebook model has morphed, which is what successful companies do. Facebook was a high-valuation stock that has come down in valuation as both price and earnings have risen, because earnings have come up faster than price. He has trimmed his holdings of Facebook as its price has come up, to keep it from taking up too much space in his portfolio.

It's had a drop down to technical support at $168. FMV is 20% below current price. On the other hand, it's had a nice pullback and around $168 is okay to buy.

In the short term, it could easily pull back to $150 that we saw earlier this year. What'll happen to FANG stocks in the inevitable recession (within 2 years)? History tells us that high-multiple companies will get hit, which will be new to Facebook.

It has valuable franchises, but he sold it at the start of 2018. Like everyone, he can't figure out the growth rate. There appears to be a decline in core Facebook users in America, which is a worry. Meanwhile, there are increasing costs.
Does the company understand the costs to meet compliance (i.e. to remove hate posts)? He predicts they will find an algorithm to solve this. They'll likely need 12 months to solve this problem. Now, he's concerned about their tone-deaf
attitude to the fears of governments, and to declining usage in some countries.