Jamie Murray Lightspeed Commerce Inc LSPD-T HOLD Feb 16, 2024

Payment technology business a tough place to invest in. Hard to determine who will be winner in this space. Also, a lot of competition which makes it hard to earn profits. Better options for investors in the markets. 

One product, the POS platform. Too volatile and uncertain. Earnings and revenues are lumpy. Better choices elsewhere, despite the low valuation. He needs more sustainability and more product offerings. Management turnover.

If you don't own, don't buy. If you already own it, and it's in a registered portfolio, perhaps hold on (as you can't take advantage of capital losses). In a non-registered portfolio, there are better places to get more visibility for the future.

A top pick because it could be bought out. Look at Nuvei. Is down 85% from its peak. LSPD is focusing more on larger customers. They finally broke even on cash. If a deal happens it will happen in 3-6 months, or else shares fall.

Restructuring to focus on higher-profitability segments. Yesterday's announcement on job cuts, though painful, was the right business decision. Strategic review is ongoing. Pretty good assets, need to focus operations.

Long-term base of support around $16-17, and seems stuck there. Just bounced off resistance. At this point, it's only a trend if there are higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows). Until it starts one of those 2 patterns, it's in consolidation. Not showing any signs of a real trend.

The only thing you can do with a stock that's consolidating is to swing-trade it.

He never owned this, never liking their growth-at-any-cost strategy and sacrificing margins. POS is a very competitive market with little difference between companies.

Would wait before buying. Recent announcement of company under strategic review sale process was not successful. Old CEO returning, but not too optimistic. Better options for investors in the markets. 

They bought good companies, but they used their expensive stock to close those deals. But then shares took a hit and they lost that power. They tried to sell, but couldn't find a buyer. Then, they issued poor guidance. Brutal. They went get their past super-high multiple.

Lowered outlook, analyst downgrades. Trying to focus on NA retail and European hospitality. The question is whether you want to catch this falling knife? You could buy a small position here, but he'd prefer writing a put, obliging yourself to own it ~$10 and get paid a nice premium.

He still models 21% EPS growth, trading ~20x.