David FingoldEli Lilly & Co.LLYPAST TOP PICKJan 06, 2023

The chart had good relative strength from May to August, then it pulled back. From mid-June to now, the trend is sideways, and is getting more rangebound. It's neutral, grinding sideways. 

It is more than a weight loss drug company. It covers such areas as oncology, neuro-science, immunology, so is a much more diversified pharmaceutical company than others. Also the weight loss drug has other benefits such as liver disease, sleep apnea, alcohol use. It has bought other businesses with profits from its weight loss drug. Has a 1.1 trillion dollar market cap.

Their valuation has fallen a lot and looks attractive now. The big question is: Can they diversify beyond GLP-1?

The momentum can continue. Up 55% this year and trades at nearly 30x PE. There's strong growth from the GLP-1 drug, but is diversifying through serious M&A, totalling $20 billion so far this year. They are expanding market share, though face competition from Novo.

Obesity is the main push, not much else in the pipeline. Not a particularly interesting buying opportunity, wait for it to get significantly cheaper. Still believes in the fundamental story. Monthly expense can be afforded by only a small cohort, and that's reaching saturation. Need government and big insurance to absorb the cost as good for society.

Though beating and raising, the next 3 years won't see the returns you saw over the last few years.

Pharma and biotech are seeing better leadership in the market. Partly because these sectors are going to be big implementers of AI, and the sector was out of favour for quite some time. They tend to be pretty big cash generators.

He's a big fan of focusing on the leaders in a sector -- easier time hiring best employees and raising capital. He'd much prefer this over PFE. Lots of revenue upside. GLP-1 market will continue to grow, as these drugs help with all kinds of issues.

Don't put new $$ in today. Priced to perfection on its execution abilities. At some point it will stumble. Good company, but very expensive.

Consistent earnings, fair valuation, and a great drug pipeline.

Is up 370% over 5 years, but really started to rise in 2023. He expects revenue growth to consistently build in coming quarters. Trading at all-time highs now.

Was upgraded today. It's the highest-quality healthcare stock. They have more than just the GLP-1 drug; are diverse with their entire drug catalogue. Exceptional execution. Good PE. 

Broad pipeline, but its leadership in GLP-1 is what's really pushing the stock. New catalyst is approval for oral pill. Winning battle against NVO. Sees ~25% earnings growth rate over next several years. 

Broken out to a new space on the charts. He looks to buy on dips if possible. Yield is 0.57%.

Different businesses. LLY is a big play in GLP-1 drugs. How will pills effect the injections business? LLY has done a good job of navigating these new pills. GS enjoys increased stock market and IPO businesses. He prefers LLY, which is tied to a secular growth trend, but GS' good times in capturing revenue in this cycle will end.

Better product than NVO. So he'd be buying this one (but not at today's price ;)

Their earnings and drugs are coming through. They have momentum and are building factories to produce their GLP-1 weight-loss drug. Is a huge holding for him.

Clear leader in diabetes and weight loss. Other players are coming in, but this name is ahead of the curve. Very strong earnings growth over next few years (50% for 2026, 22% for 2027, 17% for 2028). Reliable aspects of a pharmaceutical healthcare name, plus very strong earnings growth.

RSI is 70, so wait for a bit of a pullback.