Opinions Don Lato
Eli Lilly & Co.LLYDON'T BUYNov 27, 2013
Don LatoStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 05, 2026. Market Open.
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It is more than a weight loss drug company. It covers such areas as oncology, neuro-science, immunology, so is a much more diversified pharmaceutical company than others. Also the weight loss drug has other benefits such as liver disease, sleep apnea, alcohol use. It has bought other businesses with profits from its weight loss drug. Has a 1.1 trillion dollar market cap.
Paul Harris, CFA
The momentum can continue. Up 55% this year and trades at nearly 30x PE. There's strong growth from the GLP-1 drug, but is diversifying through serious M&A, totalling $20 billion so far this year. They are expanding market share, though face competition from Novo.
Joe TerranovaObesity is the main push, not much else in the pipeline. Not a particularly interesting buying opportunity, wait for it to get significantly cheaper. Still believes in the fundamental story. Monthly expense can be afforded by only a small cohort, and that's reaching saturation. Need government and big insurance to absorb the cost as good for society.
Though beating and raising, the next 3 years won't see the returns you saw over the last few years.
Pharma and biotech are seeing better leadership in the market. Partly because these sectors are going to be big implementers of AI, and the sector was out of favour for quite some time. They tend to be pretty big cash generators.
He's a big fan of focusing on the leaders in a sector -- easier time hiring best employees and raising capital. He'd much prefer this over PFE. Lots of revenue upside. GLP-1 market will continue to grow, as these drugs help with all kinds of issues.
David Burrows
Is up 370% over 5 years, but really started to rise in 2023. He expects revenue growth to consistently build in coming quarters. Trading at all-time highs now.
Joe TerranovaWas upgraded today. It's the highest-quality healthcare stock. They have more than just the GLP-1 drug; are diverse with their entire drug catalogue. Exceptional execution. Good PE.
Kevin SimpsonBroad pipeline, but its leadership in GLP-1 is what's really pushing the stock. New catalyst is approval for oral pill. Winning battle against NVO. Sees ~25% earnings growth rate over next several years.
Broken out to a new space on the charts. He looks to buy on dips if possible. Yield is 0.57%.
Stan WongDifferent businesses. LLY is a big play in GLP-1 drugs. How will pills effect the injections business? LLY has done a good job of navigating these new pills. GS enjoys increased stock market and IPO businesses. He prefers LLY, which is tied to a secular growth trend, but GS' good times in capturing revenue in this cycle will end.
Better product than NVO. So he'd be buying this one (but not at today's price ;)
Greg Newman
Clear leader in diabetes and weight loss. Other players are coming in, but this name is ahead of the curve. Very strong earnings growth over next few years (50% for 2026, 22% for 2027, 17% for 2028). Reliable aspects of a pharmaceutical healthcare name, plus very strong earnings growth.
RSI is 70, so wait for a bit of a pullback.
Stan Wong
Cheap on this year’s earnings, but not so cheap on next year’s. Part of the problem with this company is that one of their major drugs Cymbalta goes off patent at the end of 2013. In the 3rd quarter this drug was over 20% of their revenues, so they are looking at a pretty significant drop in revenues in 2014 and a more significant drop in earnings. A more interesting one would be Pfizer (PFE-N) as there are catalysts for change as they are looking at breaking this company up into 3 different divisions starting in 3 years but will start reporting on those divisions individually next year. He holds no pharmaceuticals at this time.