Don Short Legacy Oil and Gas Inc. LEG-T COMMENT Sep 22, 2010

He recently covered his Short on this, because he was expecting this bounce. However, the stock has not bounced a lot. They recently cut their dividend. He would stay away from this. He will re-short if there is any bounce heading into January. Fundamentals are deteriorating. Other companies that you might consider are Mart Resources (MMT-T) and ??? (See Top Picks.)

Has some concerns relating to their balance sheet. The issue is debt leverage and he thinks they are going to have to address that issue in some way. However, the assets they have are spectacular.

Balance sheet was a little too high at $60 oil, and now we are in $48 oil for the time being, so leverage is becoming more and more of an issue. Thankfully they don’t have dividend stress on their balance sheet, but at the current oil price, their debt to cash flow is an excess of 6 times. They will be in a stressed environment and may have to explore non-core asset sales.

He did a lot of trimming of oil in Oct/Nov, including this one. It has a levered balance sheet, but has really good assets. Probably a trading vehicle now. If you think oil is going to $65-$70 by the end of the year, the stock will be up, but if oil goes to $40 and stays there, they would be in financial difficulty. If you Buy, don’t stay in it for very long.

They are down and badly slammed and their earnings are way down, so the recovery potential is not visible and that is a problem for him as a value investor. You can put them away and look at them in 3 to 4 years or you could take a tax loss if it is beneficial.

They are in a difficult debt situation. They are really hoping they can go in and affect an asset sale.

Legacy (LEG-T) or Surge (SGY-T)? Hands down, he would own Surge. This one is in trouble right now. Balance sheet debt is very high; possibly 7 or 8 times cash flow. Their CFO just left. They are looking at any and all options to right side the balance sheet and just get through this trough period.

If you believe the price of oil is falling there are some companies you don’t hold. This one has a stretched balance sheet. They need $53 oil for them not to trip their covenants. If they recover, will investors go back to them? He is not going to bottom feed.

Great assets. Unfortunately a little bit of mismanagement has caused the debt to be too high for investors’ appetites. There has been a lot of shareholder value destroyed by the company. Thinks the company is worth in the $4 range, but to get there it has to do some real strategic reshuffling of the deck. Management has been talking about doing something for 6 months now, but nothing has happened. Prefers others.

The kind of stock you would buy if you were really bullish on oil right. Has good production and strong management. The current debt/cash flow ratio is huge at something like 5 or 7 times. This is why the stock has been pummelled so badly. If oil prices do another downturn or stay down for a period of time, companies like this are at a financial risk. He thinks oil will check back into the $50 range.