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Stockchase Opinions

Richard CroftiShares MSCI India ETF INDA-USCOMMENTMay 04, 2017

India is a growth market, so India and China fall into the same category. India has 300 million middle class people, which is a pretty staggering number. Longer-term, this is probably not a bad place to be.

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DON'T BUY

INDA is a bit more diversified with 70-90 stocks, instead of just the top 50 of INDY. The MERs are fairly pricey around 90 bps or so. The MER for EPI is somewhat smaller, around 30 bps lower.

He's not that familiar with that market or the companies in those ETFs. Modi has made changes there, mainly to the good. But ethnic divisiveness is a serious issue. He's not investing there for his clients at this point.

BUY

The question was on buying an ETF for India. He likes the idea of investing in India. He thinks China will continue to struggle and this benefits India which has good potential at 8% GDP growth forecast. For U.S. dollars he recommends INDA and for Canadian dollars he suggests ZID. He reminds investors that there is a lot of volatility in foreign markets.

BUY

He has very little EM exposure. But compared to developed markets, EMs have gotten very cheap on valuation and price. Likes EMs, and India is one of the leaders in that space. 

A cheaper MER than the similar XID.

BUY

India wasn't an attractive place to invest in until Modi, because bureaucracy choked India. India is safer geopolitically than China, so better to invest, though Modi is a nationalist in a country riven by religion and language. Overall, he's positive India.

BUY
India is adding $1 trillion to GDP each year or 18 months.
BUY
The USD is at 9-month highs and there are fears of a housing bubble in China. Still buy emerging markets? He loves EM, so he hates to see what's happening in China. So, look at India instead. India boasts the best demographics, arguably, and there's a major move into EV technology, fintech and green businesses. The rupee is holding on against the USD. The balance of payments is also strong. stocks. INDA continues to make fresh highs. Blame the move in China to their regulators He hopes China is playing the long long game; the short game has been frustrating. Southeast Asia is very resilient. India is not that dependent on China and is self-reliant.
TOP PICK
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
HOLD
There are remarkable changes going on in India. Deregulation is under way and there is a huge democracy growing with citizens that are very tech savy. It may be disappointing in the short term, but a good long term hold.
DON'T BUY

(A Top Pick August 9, 2017. Up 6%). He stepped away from emerging markets earlier this year but India still offers a good multi-year story. India adopted a biometric identity card system that puts everyone into the standard economy and away from the shadow economy. Deposits at banks are way up because of this. There are many other healthy signs in the economy. BUT, if emerging markets suffer, India will suffer. Because he doesn’t have to be in EM, he’s out of this for now.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 12%) India is exactly opposite of any Western country. A very young workforce, very low consumer debt, a functioning banking system and a very orthodox monetary policy.

TOP PICK

India is a 6%-7% GDP grower with a long runway. On infrastructure, they have major plans in place. It recently had a hiccup when they brought in the demonetization in 2016. Basically, everybody now has to have a metric identification card. It pulled all the money out of the banking and cash market, and into the banking system. Since 2014, they’ve had $10 billion in bank deposits, which has legitimized a significant portion of the economy, and kind of got it on track. Now they are putting GST in place. Everything is chugging along to upscale this economy.

COMMENT

He doesn’t invest in emerging markets, but his view is that India is certainly a country that is growing at a much higher clip than the rest of the developed world. The one risk is that it is more volatile. If you have a very long-term view, 15-20 years, this is a great thing to own.

COMMENT

He is not excited about India, nor is he excited about China. The story right now is probably North America. He does like Europe and would put that in behind the US, and then he would look into places like India.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Sep 20/16, Down 6.55%) There was an announcement with regard to demonetization. About 80% of daily transactions are in Cash in India and they wanted to get rid of that because of tax dodging. It is part of structural reform. We have seen an initial selloff, but it will be like a coiled spring. He sees a more sustainable rally and likes India long term. Nothing has changed structurally in terms of the Indian economy.