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Hudbay MineralsHBM.TOBUYJul 18, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 15, 2026. Market Open.
Selloff is not of its own making; has to do with the weaker macro. Q2 in line, reaffirmed 2026 guidance. Arizona Copper World is on track. Trades at 21x PE for 2027, growing ~15%. 60% copper, 35% gold, rest in zinc.
Chart looks like a triple top. Copper's absolutely needed for global expansion. Go ahead and buy.
What we've seen is just a supply response -- there's just not a lot of copper out there. But we're going to need it for a long time. It's a great play, but it's already reflected in the stocks and they're not as cheap as they were. He owns a bunch of them.
Likes HBM, LUN, CS (though higher risk), TECK.B with its Anglo merger. You can own them all, but FCX is probably the best bang for your buck right now.
Whole base metals space does well over 5 years, though perhaps poorly over 6 months. Dearth of Tier 1 deposits, whole bunch of Tier 2 deposits. For him Tier 1 means world-scale size and top quartile on ROIC, but bottom quartile on costs. Likes its built-in growth and renewed focus in Arizona, but not its financial performance.
His firm's preferences in resources have been oil, gas, gold. Some of the cyclicality might be coming out of copper. There's lots of it, but does take a long time to get new mines into production. It's in everything, and we'll probably see a time when demand outstrips supply.
Not recommended yet, but a name to keep an eye on.
Still a core holding within the materials sector. Company hopes to expand production 24% over next few years. Extending mine life. Copper World is a potentially big addition.
Management's really grabbed the reins and turned it around. He'd still recommend as a Buy today.
We're in early stages of long-term bull market for commodity stocks. You can buy and hold this name.
That said, his team is tactical. Went to the sidelines when it broke the 50-day MA a couple of weeks ago. Can likely pull back to 200-day, around $24-25 -- that's ~10%, and a decent point to re-enter.
Right space for the last 6-8 months, so stock's moved up fairly significantly. Depends on your view of precious metals moving forward. Commodities are cyclical in nature, so when the bottom falls out it can fall pretty hard.
Really good company, well run. But is it the place to be for the next 6 months? He'd be careful on commodities as we stretch into all-time highs on many of them. He's not a PM guru, so some of the other BNN guests could give more timely advice.
Is a little concerned with the chart. It's had a very good run this year, from $15 to $25, but we're seeing a correction in metal stocks. The chart has a double top now, unable to break $25 twice. The floor is $20-21, but if it falls, it could fall back to $15, a real risk. Watch this to see if it holds $20.
He bought it a while ago when he saw a copper shortage. Plus, HBM has a gold kicker. They have a leading property in Arizona that could be mined for copper. But it's a cyclical stock that can move up or down big. He sees the copper story still unfolding. He has sold half his position a few weeks ago.
Materials are currently being revalued. Commodity prices improving. The multiple investors are prepared to pay is expanding. The value of what's in the ground is expanding. We know there's demand for power everywhere in the world. There are only so many copper-producing assets, with very few new ones coming on. This name has been a big position of his for a long time.
Gold and copper. Likes copper long term for the power opportunities. Multi-mine and multi-jurisdiction, so not all eggs in one basket. (FM found out how something can change and really cause a problem.) Produces cashflow, solid operating business.
Very interesting opportunity in Arizona for Copper World, an accretive deal. Well financed. Trump keeps saying how he wants US to have its own copper production. Recently broke out of 5-year base technically. A mid-cap that could, ultimately, become someone's target. Yield is 0.13%.
First Quantum (FM-T) or Hudbay (HBM-T)? He tries to only focus in areas of the market that are strong technically and fundamentally. Also, he always looks for new groups of leadership to emerge. In the last few weeks, despite the fact that commodities in general have been spotty, the metals group has started to perform better. Globally, things are getting better economically, but in addition, the US$ has really taken a tumble. When that happens, it tends to be good for emerging markets and good for commodity prices. The 3 metal stocks that stand out would be Hudbay, First Quantum, and Lundin (LUN-T). All 3 look very attractive. He would be OK with all 3.