Stockchase Opinions

Christine Hughes Hudson Bay Co. HBC-T COMMENT Sep 17, 2014

Continues to be a very interesting situation. With the backing of a pension fund, they bought Saks. So far that story has been about financial engineering and unlocking value that was there and about the REIT spin out that is probably coming at the end of this year or early next year. If you hold it through the REIT spin out, what do you do? If you continue to hold, you have to be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that this is going to be a good retail, it was a very bold, ambitious plan to unroll Saks out into the Canadian marketplace. She expects this will be successful.

$17.510

Stock price when the opinion was issued

department stores
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DON'T BUY
He used to own this for the land it held. The land is worth a lot, but HBC has a lot of debt and other problems. He hasn't looked at HBC lately, and the retail environment has changed since he owned this. Managers are making many changes, mostly better, but time is of the essence.
DON'T BUY
He got out a few years ago. He thought he was protected by the real estate portfolio. He left the retailers and stuck with AMZN-Q. The retail business is tough. They are looking at more asset sales such as Lord and Taylor.
DON'T BUY
Real estate worth it? Not a company that he ever liked. Thinks the operating business is very difficult. They have to come to the understanding that they need to have much smaller stores. Sure, some of their locations are great, but there is a lot of other Hudson's Bay that aren't so great. Wouldn't touch it.
SELL
They want to privatize the company and it is trading below the take out price, so she does not expect a competing bid. She is not sure if there is an expiry on the offer, but this is a good time to sell if you are a shareholder.
COMMENT
Closing stores should be part of their strategy. There needs to be more definitive action by the management team. Management understands how expensive it is becoming to run a traditional retail operation. Digital and e-commerce products are making it very competitive to run a business. The real estate they possess is very valuable and it may be put to better use than retail. The deal being offered to HBC-T is very low at just $9.45 per share -- the real estate is worth $30 per share alone not including the value of their inventory. He thinks the minority shareholders will feel the offer is far to low as well.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 28/18, Down 12%) This is a real estate play. What drags this down is the brutal retail space. They need to close some stores and it's likely in progress now. This will rise eventually rise above $10. They need to make better use of their prime real estate and to do it sooner than latter--they are generating negative cash flow.
DON'T BUY
They've been on a rocky road. Beyond the headline noise, what do they have? They're in a secular (department store) decline as people buy online. Their assets being in real estate is an old story and not convincing now. Look elsewhere.
COMMENT
The Chinese trade was has been so negative for commodities as a whole. You should never fall in love with commodity stocks, they are just too cyclical.
DON'T BUY
It's a saga. The latest is that an activist has come in during this sale to complicate things. We'll see where it goes. A few parties want to buy it and see more value than the current share price. But overall he's not positive about HBC.
PARTIAL SELL
Nicknames it Hit By A Car like its chart. HBC is all about its real estate holdings; that's the reason you own this. Doesn't know if the current rally signals a buy. Can't predict this chart. Even consider selling it.