Shane ObataGeneral Motors CorporationGMWATCHMar 15, 2023

#2 market share (at 13%) in EVs in the States behind TSLA. Throttling back EV aspirations, still mostly about internal combustion. Street's expecting compound earnings growth of 13% over coming 3 years (pretty good for a mature industry). Trades at 6x PE. 

Pretty good chart. A MAGA-protected stock. Cyclical tailwinds. He's not averse to owning.

Tariff talk put it in the crosshairs. But it's executed very well. Tariffs are still a headwind. Reconstructed business plan and moved away from EVs. Maintained good cashflow, and he's expecting ~$12 EPS this year. 

CEO has done a fabulous job. Very inexpensive 7x PE. Yield is 0.91%.

Sold it after the war started. The auto sector was hit hard, as seen in their RSIs.

When he bought it, the PE was very low. The CEO has done a great job and GM will earn around $11 EPS. It remained undervalued.

What's interesting about some of these domestic automakers is that they handily outperformed TSLA. 

Super-cyclical. Depends on the consumer, interest rates and, of course, CUSMA. That said, technicals look fine -- higher highs and higher lows. Has to continue to execute. Buying back shares, increasing dividend. 

A volatile industry, but GM enjoys a stronghold in the strong US market, and auto demand is recovering.

He can't predict what will happen with CUSMA. The future is too uncertain with too many macro events to own this. GM is run well, though. Take profits.

It reports Tuesday. It tends to underperform in the first hour or two of trading on reporting days, a buying opportunity. 

Buys back a lot of shares, reducing shares by 40% since end-2015. The CEO is excellent. Tariffs suppressed shares for the first half of this year, but exploded higher in the second. Has gained 51% this year, yet trades at under 7x PE 2026. Should keep climbing with more Fed rate cuts.

Stock has been acting very well lately. The car stocks have been beaten down for so long, but are now breaking out. GM has risen near the top of his relative strength rankings.

On a pop, his firm tends not to trim (though it has happened in his career). Because the pop is on good news. Incredibly inexpensive at 6x EV to EBIT. Faced lots of negative headlines, but overcoming headwind of tariffs, and increased guidance for next year. Now the hope is that it forms a base, from which future earnings can rise.

The supply chain and consumer demand is in flux but the valuation is very cheap and doesn't reflect the current and long term fundamentals. He does acknowledge the challenges.

Continues to like it, despite many headwinds, including a $5 billion charge this year from tariffs. Shares used to be incredible cheap in terms of EBITDA. They have a good model and compete well against Ford. They have an EV program. He's happy to sit tight until the wind shifts.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Today, as then, trades at an incredibly low valuation. Makes ~$8 EPS a year, so still very cheap. Iconic American brand that manufacturers a lot in the US, so it'll be a winner on the tariff trade.

Not founder-run or founder-owned, and that's an immediate "no" for his firm. ROIC has been volatile. Quite a bit of debt. Capital intensive. Lots of competition in the space.