For the last 2-3 years he has not been in gold. Ever since the fiscal cliff in 2011, when gold made its peak and people were most worried about the US$, the US$ has been on a rally ever since. Gold is inversely related to the US$. At some point, if you see the US$ strength level out and stop going up, you are going to see gold start to rebound. Any time he looks at a group that has been in a bear market for a while, he looks at the balance sheet, not just the income statement. Even though this one is not the biggest in the space, it is by far the best disciplined with one of the best balance sheets.
(A Top Pick Aug 20/18, Up 2%) This merged with another company and was taken out. He still likes the gold space. Central Banks are beginning to run on fumes and have no idea what problems they are causing for investors down the road. Gold is good in deflationary times and even better in inflationary times -- it doesn't do well in between.
He's never really owned Goldcorp, Newmont and Barrick. The share appreciation would come better from an Agnico Eagle or Kirkland Lake which have growing reserves, great management and low production costs. He stays away from companies like Goldcorp or Barrick or Newmont. In fact, Aginco has outperformed Goldcorp and will be self-sufficient by 2023. It pays a good dividend and they continue to grow overall.
Big relationship to US dollar, so dollar strength means gold weakness. Gold gets seasonally weak right now. May go sideways for a while. If it breaks the downtrend, it can accelerate pretty quickly. Second seasonality is in the summer, but could happen earlier. Timely to buy right now, and wait for the next shot up.
It is oversold as a consequence of being belittled by Barrick. It has a paucity of tier 1 assets. The trend of mergers of in the industry is going to be good for the company.
If Barrick buys Newmont and Goldcorp walks away with $630 million because the Newmont-Goldcorp deal (of last month) doesn't actually go through. Can GT shareholders kick the GT board out--the board who gets a hefty package, but not the shareholders? He can't comment on this though many are asking this question. About this deal, we haven't seen gold M&A deals for a while. From Barrick's point of view, this is an obvious plus. Many are surprised that this is the deal.
Today's merger with Newmont Mining Synergies will improve their margins. But he would sell--he doesn't like gold in general and this is a selling opportunity.
It could be 10% higher than today. He would prefer an equal weight gold ETF. G-T is probably a slight underperformer but he would buy gold stocks on a pull back.
The success of the 20/20/20 goals on cost reductions and production and cash flow growth will be the real test. They are trying to increase transparency of their strategy, now can they prove up on the execution? He would rather pay a little more for more consistency.
Sees nothing encouraging in the fundamentals here at all. Clawed its way back from its recent 18% drop. People are worried about gold prices not sustainable at the $1300 level. Wouldn't be a buyer. Lot of resistance above $14.
ABX-T vs. G-T. G-T is more the defacto go-to name. ABX-T does not have the growth any more. He thinks G-T has better assets. The problem with G-T used to be excessive valuation but that is not the case now.
For the last 2-3 years he has not been in gold. Ever since the fiscal cliff in 2011, when gold made its peak and people were most worried about the US$, the US$ has been on a rally ever since. Gold is inversely related to the US$. At some point, if you see the US$ strength level out and stop going up, you are going to see gold start to rebound. Any time he looks at a group that has been in a bear market for a while, he looks at the balance sheet, not just the income statement. Even though this one is not the biggest in the space, it is by far the best disciplined with one of the best balance sheets.