Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO)

Has had a wonderful run up. They have done some accretive acquisitions and the market likes what it is seeing. With this you have some downside protection if Mr. Watsa thinks the market is looking toppy. It is one that you can stick in your bottom drawer for the next 5-20 years, and you will end up doing pretty well.

The one thing you know you are getting with this company is a pretty sharp financial operator running the show. You are also effectively buying downside protection on the economy. He understands they have $10 billion in Puts on the CPI, so they are betting on a low or negative inflation.

This is safe and boring. A steady Eddie that tends to grow year-over-year at a single digit. It just doesn’t have enough to get him excited. ROE on an average year is typically single digit, which is not enough growth for him.

He doesn’t own the stock, because he can’t tell what the earnings are going to be. Calls it a “black box”. He tends not to own these types of companies.

The asset value within the company is very strong. He sees no reason for anything to change.

Has done really well and is up 45% since last year. Management is being very cautious about where it is in terms of valuation and is keeping a really strong balance sheet. Have some plays in place to take advantage of downward movements. If you are going to be in any financial stock, this is one that you can feel safe with.

Has always wanted to own this, but there is a bit of a liquidity issue with it. It might be a little bit above trend right now. $600 is where he would expect it to come off to a little bit. If it got into the $600 range, that would be interesting.

This can be somewhat volatile. It is basically an insurance business with a high dependence on what they earn on the investment side of the equation. Recently announced an acquisition of an insurer and reinsurer in the UK, which long-term has an exceptional combined ratio of about 96%, which means their underwriting is positive. In the last month it has come up from $600-$650, so it can be quite volatile. He would buy it at a lower Price to Book than what it is today.

Very well-run business. For a long time people bought this because of Prem Watsa and the team’s investment acumen. In the last few years, they have seen a turnaround in some of their insurance businesses and their combined ratios have been coming down. Have also been making some acquisitions in the insurance space. He likes this one. This would be more of a defensive equity to own in your portfolio.

2021 bond paying 6.4% per annum. Fairfax is one of those unique credits in the bond market. It is BBB, so it is still an investment great company. This is a great one to look at. It has had a pretty good run, but offers a pretty decent little spread over Canada bonds right now.

Prem Watsa has taken some aggressive, non-insurance positions in this, and they have worked out well and the stock has moved up nicely. His FMV is about 25% higher than the present price. It is going to run into some technical resistance at around $625-$630. There is still value here.

This is positioned as a contra equity stock. If you believe that we are going to go into a Bear Market or we are going to have deflation, this is the one to own, because they have a huge exposure on derivatives in terms of the CPI index and other bond indices. If we have out and out inflation, this will do very well.

Have a lot of respect for Prem Watsa and this company. He is certainly a value oriented investor. This is an insurance company, so he would really like to see them have a better combined ratio. The lines of insurance they are participating in can be quite volatile. If you are a very long-term investor, you could consider stepping in. Well-managed. Dividend yield of about 2%.

Has one of the better managements, however management has gone on the negative side of financials, and for a considerable time, has essentially hedged themselves out of any potential growth. As far as he knows, they are still in a hedged position on markets rising and here we are looking like we are kicking off another good upward run.

This tends to hold up pretty well in bad markets, with the thinking that Prem Watsa is pretty smart and did very well in 2008, using credit default swaps. Have looked at this several times, but the liquidity and the volatility never presents itself at a perfect time. Chart shows a nice long base, but with the large gap between the base and the current price. He would be a bit concerned if it broke down through the $470 level which would bring it down to the range of between $440 and $463. This would be a point where he would be looking to get in.