First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO) Buy, Sell…

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First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Has never believed the hype in the first place. One of the great promotional stories of the year.

DON'T BUY

Had a nice pop when new executives were named. There also may be some takeover rumours. They have a lot of gas reserves in Algeria and North Africa however it is very difficult to commercialize these gases. Probably a little bit overpriced.

DON'T BUY

Caught everyone's attention with these huge gas finds, but didn't have the capital to develop the fields properly. Given its history, he thinks it will take a little time.

BUY

A north African stock and very big gas. Large reserves. There's probably another move to $10 again.

DON'T BUY

Spectacular rise in '04 and an equally spectacular collapse in '05. Had a long trend line which was good, but the trend line was busted in early '05. Once a trend line is busted, don't hang around because it ususally points to lower prices. Had a correction , but is now in another down trend. It may be trying to base now, or trying to make another leg.

HOLD

If you've held it all this time during its pullback, it is probably a hold. Wouldn't buy. The bottom line with this company is that they had this property that looked tremendously attractive, but haven't really developed it yet. No buyer came forward, so they decided to develop it themselves. It is some time away before it is producing.

BUY

Because they couldn't get a buyer, they raised enough money to do 18 months of drilling to prove that they have the gas reserves. 2 cautions, 100% natural gas outside of North America and government takes about 85% of their production. Stock should do well when they come up with some drilling results.

BUY

Have a nice gas reserve. Was up for sale earlier this year and nobody wanted them. They raised $75 million and are back at it again. Hit a couple of drill holes that weren't as promised. The play is still legit and thinks they will still get a buyer ultimately.

DON'T BUY

Had problems selling their company, so had to raise finances to develop their properties. He doesn't know what to believe, so stays away from it.

DON'T BUY

There's no real prospect to take over the company. Big land base, but they need the time and the money to develop it.

WATCH

Now that it's fallen so far, he's going to take a look at it. The size of their property is significant. The key thing is taking it from a resource potential to a reserve and they have to do drilling up to do that.

DON'T BUY

Starting to improve its visibility a litle bit. Struggled in the last little while because it couldn't find a buyer for its fields. Thinks it's going to pop because it sold off so hard, but doesn't think you'll see improvement for at least a year or more.

DON'T BUY

Fell off the cliff when the bid from Repsol (REP-N) didn't materialize. Has some good properties. Have producing fields. Too speculative.

HOLD

Has tremendous resources, but can't develop them right now. They shopped for a bidder without success. Now trying to develop production on their own. A bit of a problematic story. Will be a little tough sledding for the stock. If you bought in at the low, HOLD.

WEAK BUY

A very surprising stock because it had a huge move back in 2002 which carried it up to $24 this year and for whatever reason, profit taking set in. At this stage, there is a good chance that the stock is going slightly higher, but at $12.50/13 it could run into a lot of supply, i.e., those people who bought at $13 make a run for it.

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First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)